Standard Chartered Bank said in its latest outlook report that Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to usher in its most vigorous second-half rally in history, driven by "triple positive factors". It is expected that Bitcoin will rise to $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and challenge the $200,000 mark by the end of the year, nearly doubling its current market price of about $108,000.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of global digital asset research at Standard Chartered, emphasized that this wave of market is no longer the old script of the "halving cycle" in the past, but a brand new pattern shaped by three core driving forces: ETF hot money, corporate buying, and US policy shift.
ETFs and corporate buying support the market outlook for the second half of the year
According to statistics, during the second quarter of this year, ETFs and corporate purchases absorbed a total of more than 245,000 bitcoins. Standard Chartered expects that this wave of buying will not only not stop in the third and fourth quarters, but will reach new peaks.
Geoffrey Kendrick specifically pointed out that in addition to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), other listed companies have also actively included Bitcoin in their asset allocation. In the second quarter, major companies bought a total of about 56,000 Bitcoins, almost catching up with Strategy's increase of up to 69,000 Bitcoins. He said:
Although MSTR’s coin purchases have slowed down slightly in recent months, new companies have quickly filled the gap, keeping the overall buying momentum going. We therefore expect that global listed companies’ coin purchases in the third quarter will exceed those in the second quarter, providing bullish support for overall funding momentum.
Traditional safe-haven funds turn to Bitcoin
It is worth noting that during the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, the phenomenon of investors turning from traditional safe-haven assets such as gold to Bitcoin has become increasingly obvious. In the second quarter, Bitcoin ETF attracted as much as US$12.4 billion, surpassing gold ETF.
In Geoffrey Kendrick's view, this is an encouraging positive signal that shows that Bitcoin's positioning as a "macro asset" is accelerating.
At the same time, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)'s Bitcoin short positions did not expand synchronously. In other words, most Bitcoin ETF investors are "actual net longs" rather than safe-haven positions.
Policy changes become potential positives
In addition to institutional buying, Geoffrey Kendrick also pointed out three potential policy variables that are expected to boost Bitcoin's surge:
Trump announced the successor to the Federal Reserve Chairman ahead of schedule: stimulating market expectations of an early rate cut by the Fed and raising doubts about the independence of the Fed, thereby boosting the Bitcoin market.
(GENIUS Act) Successfully passed: If this bipartisan bill is successfully passed, it will accelerate the entry of stablecoins (such as USDC and RLUSD) into the mainstream financial system, and indirectly guide more retail and corporate funds into the cryptocurrency market.
Sovereign buying is beginning to emerge: According to the US 13F report, sovereign funds have entered the market to test the waters, and more information on increased holdings is expected to be revealed in August, adding structural buying momentum to Bitcoin.
The “halving cycle” is no longer effective, and liquidity dominates pricing logic
In the past, Bitcoin usually reached a high point about 500 days after the halving, but Geoffrey Kendrick believes that this cyclical logic is no longer applicable today.
He explained that in the past, there were no Bitcoin spot ETFs or corporate buying in the market, and the market was mostly dominated by retail investors and miners; now with the fundamental changes in the capital structure, price trends have also entered a new era of "supply cycle-driven" and "capital flow-driven."
He also estimates that long-term holders' willingness to sell this year will be significantly reduced, and the continued influx of stable funds will be sufficient to offset the profit-taking selling pressure, and the bullish structure is expected to continue until the end of the year.
Taking all the above factors into consideration, Standard Chartered Bank expects Bitcoin to hit a new high of $135,000 in the third quarter, and is likely to end the year with a strong finish and reach the $200,000 mark.
"Three major positive factors come together, Bitcoin will double in the second half of the year! Standard Chartered says: BTC will soar to 200,000 US dollars by the end of the year" This article was first published on (Block Guest).
