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Weekly review
From June 23 to June 30, Ice Sugar Orange saw a maximum near $108,789 and a minimum close to $99,613, with a fluctuation range of about 9.21%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded near approximately 103,876, which will have certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
60,000-68,000 approximately 1.13 million coins;
76,000-89,000 approximately 1.19 million coins;
90,000-100,000 approximately 1.28 million coins;
Above 100,000 approximately 1.38 million coins;
The probability of not breaking below the range of $95,000 to $100,000 in the short term is 80%;
Important news:
Economic news:
Interest rate cut expectations have strengthened: Statements from Federal Reserve officials (Goolsbee, Waller, Bowman) and the de-emphasis on tariff inflation effects have reinforced the market's expectations for a dovish turn from the Fed. Powell also did not refute dovish remarks, stating that as long as inflation remains moderate, the timing for an interest rate cut may be advanced.
Interest rate cut timing prediction: Goldman Sachs has moved its Fed interest rate cut prediction from December to September. Goldman Sachs research believes that the Fed's turn signal is clear, and the door for rate cuts is gradually opening.
Likelihood of an interest rate cut: The Fed is likely to foreshadow a potential rate cut in September during its July meeting or directly cut rates during the July meeting (though this is less likely).
U.S. government and political dynamics:
"Beautiful Big Bill": The U.S. Senate will begin voting on the large tax and spending bill referred to by Trump as the 'Beautiful Big Bill' at 9 a.m. local time on June 30, with the final result expected to be revealed on the evening of the 30th or the morning of the next day.
The bill has passed a procedural motion (51 votes to 49 votes), and it is expected to take several days, with the goal of delivering it to Trump for signing before July 4.
Bill impact:
The U.S. Congressional Budget Office states that this bill will increase the U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade. Musk criticizes the bill, stating it will destroy millions of jobs and cause significant strategic damage to the U.S.
Trump's viewpoint:
Interest rates: Calls for the U.S. interest rates to be lowered to 1% or 2%, unwilling to pay a high interest rate on 10-year debt. He again criticized Powell as a 'fool'.
Tariffs: Regarding the tariff buffer period on July 9, Trump stated it could be extended or not.
Federal Reserve leadership: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that although Powell's term lasts until May next year, a successor may be nominated as early as October this year.
Trade negotiations: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen believes all trade negotiations can be completed before September 1.
Cryptocurrency ecosystem news
Matrixport analysis: BTC is testing recent resistance levels, but market response is tepid.
Despite continued ETF inflows and new highs in the U.S. stock market, BTC's performance is weak. As interest rate cut expectations rise, the strength of the U.S. stock market may become a wind vane, and the incremental funds brought by Wall Street through ETFs may become an important driving force for BTC's rise.
CryptoQuant analysis: According to the 'realized supply' metric, the current BTC price is slightly above the annual average ratio level, placing the market in a neutral range, neither overbought nor oversold.
Historical data: Coinglass data shows that from 2013 to now, BTC has risen 8 times and fallen 4 times in July, with an average increase of 7.56%.
Geopolitical events impact: Bn Research data shows that since 2020, BTC has typically rebounded by an average of 37% within 60 days following significant geopolitical events.
Cointelegraph suggests that the 'altcoin season' may begin in the coming weeks or months. Alphractal's CEO believes the altcoin season index is signaling opportunities, as it remains in the green zone below 20%; once it breaks the 20% threshold, it usually rises rapidly. (The probability of an altcoin season is not high)
Capital flow and positions:
Spot ETF: Last week, the total inflow of the U.S. BTC spot ETF was $2.214 billion. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT had an inflow of $1.31 billion, and Fidelity's FBTC had an inflow of $504.5 million.
Digital asset products: Last week, the total inflow of digital asset investment products was $2.7 billion, marking eleven consecutive weeks of inflows, with total inflows in the first half of the year reaching $17.8 billion.
Corporate increases:
Europe's The Blockchain Group increased its holdings by 60 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 1,788 BTC.
Spanish coffee chain Vanadi Coffee increased its holdings by 20 BTC, bringing its total to 54 BTC, and plans to invest up to 1 billion euros to increase its BTC holdings.
Metaplanet increased its holdings by 1,005 BTC, totaling 13,350 BTC.
Public companies' investments: DWF Ventures stated that in the past year, public companies have invested over $40 billion in the digital asset space, with 14 companies adopting reserve strategies, holding over $76 billion in crypto assets.
Stablecoins: The market capitalization of stablecoins increased by 0.82% in the past seven days, reaching $253.609 billion.
Regulatory and policy dynamics:
United States: Congress has restarted the cryptocurrency legislative process, and it seems that the Senate, Republicans, and the White House are pushing to pass the market structure bill and stablecoin bill as independent proposals.
Hong Kong: The Financial Secretary and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority have begun a joint consultation to introduce a regulatory regime for virtual asset trading service providers and custodians, which will authorize the HKMA to license and regulate them, following the principle of 'same business, same risk, same rules'.
New products and services:
Solana ETF: REX-OSPREY's CEO stated that the staking Solana ETF will begin trading on Wednesday.
Staking services: Robinhood announced that its ETH and SOL staking services are now open to U.S. users.
Political figures' viewpoints:
Trump: Described cryptocurrencies as 'very interesting' and stated that a very strong industry has been built, creating jobs, and that BTC has alleviated the pressure on the dollar.
Long-term insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market / bear market / structural change / neutral state.
Medium-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain premises.
Long-term insights
Non-liquid long-term whales
Total spot selling pressure
ETF reserve status
Long-term investors holding for over six months
Large net transfers from exchanges
Short-term speculator cost line
(The following chart shows non-liquid long-term whales)
This chart reveals the behavior of the most influential 'smart money' in the market. Their steep accumulation curve clearly indicates that these capital giants are not on the sidelines but are actively executing a strategic purchasing plan. They are not disturbed by short-term price rises and falls; their only driving force is the assessment of the long-term value of assets. Every price consolidation or pullback is seen by them as an opportunity to increase core positions at a lower cost. Their behavior essentially involves systematically withdrawing Bitcoin from the active trading market and locking it into their own vaults, directly leading to the future 'spot' supply becoming scarcer.
(The following chart shows total spot selling pressure)
The oscillating rise of this indicator is the main reason for the current market's sideways movement. It represents continuous selling pressure from the 'non-believer' group. These sellers include impatient short-term traders, investors who have broken even near the cost line, and some early participants who are taking profits at this stage. However, the key is that this selling pressure is 'manageable' and 'gradual', rather than 'panic-driven'. This indicates that the market is experiencing a healthy 'hand-off' process, where chips are being transferred from holders with weak conviction to buyers with stronger conviction.
(The following chart shows the ETF reserve status)
The sustained net inflow of ETFs is the most fundamental difference in this cycle compared to previous ones. It is no longer fragmented, emotion-driven demand, but rather structured, continuous allocation demand from the mainstream financial world. Even though the inflow speed has shifted from the initial 'explosive' to the current 'steady', its significance is even more profound. It provides the market with an unprecedented stable demand foundation, like a huge sponge, absorbing the aforementioned 'total spot selling pressure' day by day, thus greatly enhancing the resilience of the market bottom.
(The following chart shows long-term investors holding for over six months)
This data accounts for over 54.7%, quantifying the market's intrinsic strength. It tells us that more than half of the Bitcoin supply is in a 'deep sleep' state. These tokens are held by 'strong hands' who rarely participate in daily trading and are insensitive to price fluctuations. This creates a highly inelastic supply side in the market. In simple terms, the true circulating supply of the market is much smaller than it appears. This fact means that once there is a significant increase in demand in the future, the price response will be more intense than expected.
(The following chart shows large net transfers from exchanges)
The recent shift from net inflow to net outflow is a highly credible bullish signal.
Indicates that at the current price level, large players' actions have shifted from 'considering selling' to 'actively buying and withdrawing'. Withdrawing tokens from exchanges to personal wallets is a signal of long-term holding, as it increases the steps and difficulty of selling in the future.
This behavior is a microscopic confirmation of the macro observation that 'non-liquid whales are accumulating'.
(The following chart shows the short-term speculator cost line)
The line at approximately $98,880 is the current market's dividing line between bulls and bears and the psychological main battlefield. It is the average cost of all recent market participants.
As resistance: When the current price runs below this line, it will suppress every rebound, as holders at a loss will 'unload' here.
As support: Once the price is effectively broken through and stands firm above it, all short-term holders will turn to a profit state, and their mentality will become positive; this line will also turn back into solid support. Therefore, the relationship between the price and this line is the most direct indicator of whether the market will shift from weak to strong in the short term.
Comprehensive analysis of all information
Integrate all information—macro news, political dynamics, and the six on-chain indicators above—into a unified analytical framework.
The specific process occurring within the 'latent period': tranquil redistribution.
The macro environment sets the 'why': The expectation of an imminent interest rate cut from the Fed creates the fundamental macro reason for capital to seek higher return risk assets (like Bitcoin).
The ETF channel solves the 'how': The spot ETF provides a compliant, efficient, and large-scale entry into the Bitcoin market for traditional capital.
On-chain data demonstrates the 'what': On-chain data has become the validation for all of this. The funds flowing into ETFs ultimately manifest as the accelerated accumulation of 'non-liquid whales' and the ongoing net outflows from exchanges. This powerful and disciplined buying is calmly absorbing the selling pressure created by 'short-term traders'. The result of this process is the continuous increase in the proportion of 'long-term holders', and the basic supply of the market is becoming increasingly solid.
Therefore, the current seemingly calm price trend is a profound misdirection. Beneath the market's calm lies a systematic optimization of its ownership structure. Bitcoin is being transferred at an unprecedented speed from the 'weak hands' with high liquidity and weak conviction to the 'strong hands' with low liquidity and strong conviction.
The core contradiction of the market is now clearly presented before us: on one side is strategic, silent, continued buying based on long-term value; on the other side is emotional, noisy, continued selling based on short-term prices. Currently, both sides have reached a temporary balance near the short-term holder cost line (approximately $98,880).
Short-term and medium to long-term outlook
Short-term outlook
The market will continue to be in a high-tension sideways consolidation phase. The main task of this phase is to complete the aforementioned 'redistribution' process.
Price behavior: Prices will oscillate around the short-term holder cost line (approximately $98,880). Any behavior that breaks below the current range may be seen as a good opportunity for whales to further accumulate, thereby obtaining strong support (this is just a high probability). An upward rebound will continue to face pressure from profit-taking. The focus of this phase is not on the magnitude of price fluctuations, but on trading volume and the market's reaction to key price points. If trading volume shrinks while prices decline and rebounds quickly, while an upward movement can be accompanied by a moderate increase in trading volume, it indicates that the absorption process is progressing smoothly.
Key observation points: Continuously monitor the weekly flow of ETFs and the net flow of exchanges. As long as ETFs can maintain a neutral to slightly positive inflow, and the overall trend of net outflows from exchanges remains unchanged, it indicates that the healthy structure of the market has not been damaged.
Medium to long-term outlook (next 6 to 18 months)
The outlook for this time dimension appears optimistic, based on the market structure completed after 'redistribution'.
Trigger: The core catalyst that triggers the market to enter the next phase is still the clear interest rate cut signal from the Federal Reserve. This is an undisputed signal that allows all market participants to reach a consensus.
Response: Once the trigger is activated, due to the supply side of the market having been deeply optimized (over 54.7% of the supply is locked), even moderate new demand will be sufficient to trigger a sharp upward price reevaluation. The slope and magnitude of the rise may exceed most expectations, as the chips available for trading have become very scarce.
Evolution path:
Breakthrough: Prices decisively stand above $98,880, turning resistance into support, confirming the end of the 'latent period'.
Acceleration: The breakthrough itself will attract a large amount of trend-following capital to enter the market, forming a positive cycle and rapidly driving up prices.
Value discovery: The market will begin to truly explore a question:
In a macro world of interest rate cuts, what is the fair value of Bitcoin, which is treated as a value reserve by mainstream institutions and has its supply halved?
Medium-term exploration
Derivatives risk coefficient
Incremental model
Long-term participants' holding ratio
Realized profit and loss ratio
Liquidity supply
(The following chart shows derivatives risk coefficients)
Purple-red: Short squeeze coefficient
In the past two days, after a rapid short squeeze, the indicators have quickly declined.
The current market structure has transformed into a bullish liquidation trend, which may greatly impact the overall rhythm of the market given the current state of existing positions, potentially generalizing to the mid-term.
In the context of the existing market structure, the emotions of market participants are also being squeezed against each other. This dynamic gaming pattern will severely impact market judgment and analysis; currently, making unilateral structural judgments is prone to distortion.
A relatively prudent judgment approach is to wait for the right-side structure to emerge, with widespread gaming occurring on-chain, which will continue to unfold.
(The following chart shows the incremental model)
The short-term participants in the market are slowly accumulating, which may indicate a gradual return of liquidity.
Generally speaking, every period of the market needs liquidity supply. Now, if the supply of stablecoins does not experience explosive growth, the market's internal purchasing power remains driven by existing supply.
Currently, short-term participants are returning to the market, possibly indicating that their previously sluggish and wait-and-see attitudes are gradually improving.
(The following chart shows the long-term participants' holding ratio)
The supply share of long-term participants shows signs of turning downward, but the currently accumulated supply share is relatively high, having withdrawn a significant amount of liquidity.
They may choose to hold more patiently if BTC's market price does not continue to rise.
This group of participants holds a significant amount of the market's chips, often stabilizing the market and withdrawing supply.
(The following chart shows realized profit and loss ratio)
Blue: Realized profits
Red: Realized losses
The realized profit and loss ratio shows that the market's 'profit effect' may be slowly declining. Currently, realized losses have not continued to rise, which can be compared to the structural small bull market in the second half of 2021, when even with a positive market, the loss magnitude was still expanding.
Currently, the market appears to be more mature and steady compared to before, with a significant reduction in participants selling at a loss; conversely, most current participants are in a profit-taking position, even if the 'profit effect' is declining.
Perhaps, current participants tend to hoard chips or sell a small amount at a profit, so the market's chip flow state has not shown an excessive panic or an 'escape trend' of participants selling at a loss.
(The following chart shows liquidity supply)
Liquidity has recently shown signs of slow recovery, and the liquidity situation may have eased recently.
Remaining volatility may, after derivatives gameplay, influence trend changes.
Short-term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Options intention trading ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Options implied volatility
Profit and loss transfer volume
New addresses and active addresses
Ice Sugar Orange exchange net position
Auntie exchange net position
High-weighted selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net position
Derivatives rating: Risk coefficient is in the red zone, indicating high derivatives risk.
(The following chart shows derivatives risk coefficients)
The overall market trend is basically consistent with last week's expectations. Currently, after the risk factor reaches the bottom of the red zone, it has begun to recover towards the green direction. It is expected that this week the market will still maintain a high probability of oscillation or slight downward oscillation.
(The following chart shows the options intention trading ratio)
The current ratio of put options is at a high level, while trading volume is at a low level.
(The following chart shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume is at a low level.
(The following chart shows options implied volatility)
Options implied volatility has continued to decline in the short term.
Sentiment state rating: Neutral cautious
(The following chart shows the profit and loss transfer volume)
Consistent with last week, the overall market sentiment remains relatively neutral and cautious.
(The following chart shows new addresses and active addresses)
New active addresses are at a low level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC is in a continuous large outflow accumulation state, while ETH has a small inflow.
(The following chart shows the net positions of Ice Sugar Orange exchanges)
Currently, a large amount of BTC continues to flow out.
(The following chart shows the net positions of E-Trade)
Currently, ETH has a slight inflow.
(The following chart shows high-weighted selling pressure)
Currently, both BTC and ETH have high-weighted selling pressure.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, while stablecoin purchasing power has slightly diminished.
(The following chart shows the global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded.
(The following chart shows the net positions of USDT on exchanges)
Stablecoin purchasing power has slightly diminished compared to last week.
Weekly summary:
News summary:
The market is currently in a resonance period of macro tailwinds (interest rate cut expectations) and capital inflows (institutional allocation).
Not the end of a bear market, but possibly the beginning of the next opportunity led by institutions.
Short-term outlook:
The market is likely to maintain high-tension range oscillation.
The core observation point is not the rise or fall, but the support strength of buying during pullbacks.
As long as the buying represented by ETFs can continue to absorb selling pressure (reflected in intraday V-shaped reversals and weekly net inflows), it proves that the market is effectively bottoming out, accumulating energy for an upward move.
Medium to long-term outlook:
Once the Fed's interest rate cut is triggered, the current 'latent period' will end, and the market may enter a major upward wave driven by price discovery.
At that time, the demand shock brought by the ETF, the supply shock from continued purchases by long-term whales, and the liquidity shock brought by interest rate cuts will form a powerful synergy.
Key nodes:
Core catalysts (positive):
Ultimate trigger: The Fed clearly releases an interest rate cut signal (expected at the July or September meeting).
Strong signals: Record ETF inflows, adoption by Fortune 500 companies, passage of U.S. crypto legislation.
Potential risk points (negative):
Maximum risk: Unexpected rebound in inflation, forcing the Fed to turn hawkish.
Structural damage: Continued large-scale net outflows from ETFs.
Black swan: A severe global geopolitical or financial crisis.
Final:
The current calm in the market is a buildup of momentum.
The short-term high-tension fluctuations are serving the medium to long-term structural rise.
The core of investment strategy should shift from predicting short-term volatility to identifying underlying structural opportunities and patiently waiting for the appearance of the 'trigger'.
On-chain long-term insights:
The external environment is already favorable: interest rate cut expectations provide a clear macro liquidity outlook for the market.
New demand has become the norm: ETFs have brought unprecedented and sustained institutional buying to the market.
Core chips are increasingly concentrated: On-chain data shows that over half of the supply has been locked by long-term holders, and 'smart money' (long-term whales) is accelerating accumulation and withdrawing from exchanges during the current phase.
Supply elasticity continues to decrease: Every coin locked by 'diamond hands' means that the future circulating volume available for trading is permanently reduced.
Market tone:
Strategic patience, based on data-driven beliefs.
Unlike previous cycles, the bullish logic of this round of the market is not based on vague narratives or pure speculative emotions, but on quantifiable and verifiable on-chain data and structural changes.
A belief supported by data is far more solid than emotions that fluctuate due to price rises and falls.
This phase should be viewed as the calm before the storm. This tranquility is not a sign of weakness but a unique silence that occurs while a solid foundation is being laid.
The key variable determining the next phase direction of the market is no longer the question of 'whether it will rise', but rather 'when it will start to rise'.
On-chain medium-term exploration:
After a rapid short squeeze, the indicators have rapidly declined, and the market has shifted to a bullish liquidation; derivatives liquidation affects the mid-term rhythm, and it is advisable to wait for the right-side structure.
Short-term participants are slowly accumulating, liquidity is gradually returning; purchasing power is driven by existing supply, and the wait-and-see attitude is improving.
The supply share of long-term participants is turning downward, accumulating and withdrawing liquidity; or patiently holding to stabilize the market.
Participants are maturing, reducing losses and sales; the state of chip flow is stable.
Liquidity is slowly repairing recently.
Market tone:
Adjustment, caution
Market liquidity is slowly recovering, participants' behavior is maturing, and the current derivatives gameplay may dominate the trend.
On-chain short-term observation:
Risk factor is in the red zone, indicating high derivatives risk.
New active addresses are still at a low level.
Market sentiment state rating: Neutral cautious.
The net positions on exchanges overall show that BTC is in a continuous large outflow accumulation state, with a small inflow of ETH.
Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, while stablecoin purchasing power has slightly diminished.
The probability of not breaking below the range of $95,000 to $100,000 in the short term is 80%;
Market tone:
Short-term overall market sentiment is relatively neutral and cautious, with no signs of frenzy or panic. If there are no particularly sudden news influences, this week's expectations remain basically consistent with last week's, with the market influenced by derivatives while biased towards oscillation or slight downward oscillation; the probability of direct major corrections and significant short squeezes is low.
Risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide directional opinions on investments; please treat with caution and guard against market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' Research Institute.
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