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This week in review
From June 30 to July 7 this week, Ice Sugar Orange peaked near $110,529 and bottomed close to $105,250, with a fluctuation range of around 5.17%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there was a large amount of chip transactions around 103,876, which will provide certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
60,000-68,000 approximately 1.13 million coins;
76,000-89,000 approximately 1.19 million coins;
90,000-100,000 approximately 1.24 million coins;
Above 100,000 approximately 1.56 million coins;
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 95,000 to 100,000 is 80%;
Important News Aspects
Economic News Aspects
Fed Policy and Expectations:
The expected release of the Fed's June meeting minutes on Wednesday will not change the market's expectations for keeping rates unchanged in July.
Both Lloyds Bank and Nomura Securities believe that the market generally expects the interest rate to remain unchanged in July.
Lloyds Bank believes that interest rate adjustments are more likely to occur in September, and the Fed's dot plot still anticipates two rate cuts this year.
As tariff issues gradually clarify, the market theme will return to interest rate cuts. The Fed needs to communicate with the market in advance about rate cuts, with the best timing being the July meeting and the August Jackson Hole annual meeting.
U.S. Politics and Bills:
On July 4 local time, Trump signed the 'Beautiful Big Bill' (MAGA Act). This bill has been controversial due to cuts to federal assistance, increases in long-term debt, and tax cuts for the wealthy and large corporations.
As a result of the 'Beautiful Big Bill', Cointelegraph reports that U.S. national debt is expected to surge to $40 trillion by the end of 2025.
Voting on whether Musk should create the 'American Party' has ended, with a support rate of 65.4% (over 1.24 million votes). Musk stated that lawmakers supporting the bill should feel ashamed and indicated that if the bill passes, the 'American Party' will be established the next day.
International Trade and Tariffs:
Trump stated that tariff letters and/or agreements with countries around the world will be sent out at noon on July 7, Eastern Time.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Beilenson stated that trade negotiations are in the final stages, the situation is very crowded, and progress is being made in trade talks with the EU. The next 72 hours will be busy with trade negotiations.
If no agreement is reached, tariffs will return to the levels set on April 2 on August 1. Beilenson rejected the idea of viewing August 1 as a new tariff deadline, but this date still gives trading partners more time to renegotiate.
Nomura Securities believes that as the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, market fluctuations may occur. Further clarity on tariffs may help the market eventually rise, and new tariff agreements may reduce uncertainty.
The tariff buffer period of July 9 is about to expire.
Market Analysis and Outlook:
U.S. stock indices set multiple new highs last week, possibly indicating a good market outlook.
As tariff uncertainties dissipate, the market is moving towards a better side and focusing on positive developments such as Fed rate cuts and AI narratives.
Cryptocurrency Ecosystem News Aspects
The altcoin season index has risen to 27 (previously as low as 15 on June 22), indicating that about 27 of the top 100 coins by market capitalization have outperformed BTC in the past 90 days.
U.S. Cryptocurrency Regulation and Legislation:
Reporter Eleanor Terrett stated that the hearing on 'Making America the Global Cryptocurrency Capital' scheduled for this week will be postponed. This hearing was originally planned to focus on building a 21st-century tax policy framework for digital assets.
White House Cryptocurrency and AI Director David Sacks stated that the week of July 14 will be the House's cryptocurrency week, during which the (GENIUS Act) (Stablecoin Act) will be delivered to Trump, and the (CLARITY Act) (U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) will be delivered to the Senate.
Hong Kong Cryptocurrency Regulation:
Hong Kong's (Stablecoin Regulations) will take effect in August. Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Hui Zhengyu stated that the Monetary Authority is currently consulting the market on implementing regulatory guidelines, which will be announced within this month, involving anti-money laundering requirements.
The expected number of stablecoin licenses to be granted will be single digits, with the goal of issuing licenses within this year.
Cryptocurrency Market Capital Flow and Financing:
Last week, the inflow into U.S. BTC spot ETFs was $769.5 million, and ETH spot ETFs saw an inflow of $219.1 million.
Cb Institutional Research Director David Duong pointed out that ETH spot ETFs saw strong growth in June, with net inflows reaching $1.16 billion, an unprecedented surge in the history of such products.
The total market cap of stablecoins increased by 0.73% in the past 7 days, reaching $255.433 billion.
DLnews reported that the total funding of the cryptocurrency market in the first half of 2025 is about $10.3 billion, exceeding the total of $9.6 billion for the entire year of 2024.
Institution and National Holdings Dynamics:
El Salvador: Increased holdings by 8 BTC in the past 7 days, with total holdings reaching 6,230.18 BTC.
The Smarter Web Company (London-listed company): Increased holdings by 226.42 BTC, with total holdings reaching 1,000 BTC.
The Blockchain Group: Increased holdings by 116 BTC, with total holdings reaching 1,904 BTC.
Metaplanet: Invested approximately $238.7 million to increase holdings by 2,205 BTC, with total holdings reaching 15,555 BTC.
NLNico Statistics: Last week, a total of 54 entities announced BTC treasury announcements, collectively increasing holdings by 8,434 BTC. This includes:
Design application giant Figma holds nearly $70 million in BTC ETF.
18 companies added a total of 7,591 BTC.
Market Analysis and Forecast:
Analyst Eugene: It is expected that a breakthrough will occur this week. As long as BTC breaks through 110,000 USD, it is likely to signal the return of a bull market. Considering the positive regulatory developments in the U.S., institutions are looking for more than just BTC; the market positioning and tailwind factors for ETH have changed significantly. The idea that 'you can still catch early by buying ETH' is not entirely unfounded.
Cointelegraph Prediction: Based on the historical increase of 38% in BTC after Trump signed the spending bill at the end of 2020, if a similar price trend occurs after the 'Beautiful Big Bill', BTC will eventually break through 150,000 USD.
Grayscale Analysis: As U.S. policies shift towards being crypto-friendly, ETH may benefit. New legislation (like the GENIUS Act) is expected to clarify stablecoin regulatory rules and accelerate the adoption of smart contracts.
Overall Outlook: The market is increasingly approaching a turning point, with BTC only about 3% away from a new high.
Long-term Insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull Market/Bear Market/Structural Change/Neutral State
Mid-term Exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations may arise.
Short-term Observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain events occurring under certain premises.
Long-term Insights
Large Net Transfers from Exchanges
ETF Reserve Status
Non-liquid Long-term Whales
High-weight Selling Pressure
Long-term Investors Holding for Over Six Months
Short-term Speculator Cost Line
(Below chart Large Net Transfers from Exchanges)
Recent data has shifted from net inflows to net outflows.
This is a direct signal indicating that large investors (or whales) at the current price level tend to buy and withdraw Bitcoin from exchanges rather than depositing it into exchanges for sale.
This behavior reduces the market's immediate selling pressure and suggests that these key participants are optimistic about future markets, preferring to hold long-term rather than trade short-term.
(Below chart ETF Reserve Status)
Funds continue to record net inflows, although the rate of inflow is not at historical highs, the fact of 'sustained net inflows' is crucial.
It proves that the new buying power from the traditional financial sector is stable and continuous, providing a solid and quantifiable demand base for the market, forming strong support for prices.
(Below chart Non-liquid Long-term Whales)
Previously, this group of steadfast holders was aggressively increasing their holdings, but now this accumulation behavior has stagnated.
This does not mean they are selling; rather, it indicates that a strong source of buying power in the market has temporarily entered a wait-and-see state.
This has weakened the buying power, and the market needs other forces to fill this gap.
(Below chart High-weight selling pressure)
Indicators show that Bitcoin that has been held for a long time (old coins) recently has shown signs of being moved or sold at high levels, and activity has increased.
Clearly indicates that some early investors or long-term holders are realizing profits in the current high price area.
The most unignorable direct supply source in the market poses a real resistance to price increases.
(Below chart Long-term Investors Holding for Over Six Months)
The total holding ratio of this group accounts for an increasing proportion of the total Bitcoin supply, now reaching 54.6%.
This means that although some 'old money' is selling, more Bitcoin is being held for over six months, settling away from the active trading market.
Fundamentally reduces the potential selling supply in the market, which is a strong indicator of market health and holder confidence.
(Below chart Short-term Speculator Cost Line)
This line represents the average cost of market participants' positions in recent times, which has risen to around 99,570 USD.
This price level has become the core point of contention in the current market. If prices are above this level, recent buyers are generally profitable, and market sentiment is warm;
If prices fall below this level, they will face loss pressure, which may trigger further selling.
Comprehensive consideration: Tug-of-war at high levels
On one end, there is strong buying power. The composition of this power is three-dimensional:
Pioneer: Institutional buying represented by ETFs, which continually and steadily brings in new funds from off-market.
Main Force: Those whales who withdraw large amounts from exchanges, expressing their recognition of long-term value through actual actions, are the most steadfast buyers in the market.
Foundation: A continuously growing group of long-term holders, like a huge 'locked pool', continuously reduces the circulating supply in the market, solidifying the rear for buyers.
On the other end, there is also formidable selling power that cannot be overlooked. The composition of this force is more concentrated:
Main Opponents: Those 'old money' investors who are realizing profits at high levels. They hold Bitcoin at very low costs, making any price a significant profit for them, thus they have a strong willingness and ability to sell.
Potential Variations: Those large whales who have paused their accumulation. Although they have not joined the selling side, their 'inactivity' has deprived the buying camp of an important strike force, objectively increasing the difficulty for buyers to win.
The focal point of the competition, the marking line, is the short-term holder cost line of 99,570 USD.
Every effort is a contest over prices at this line.
Therefore, the confirmation hypothesis derived from the news has not been overturned, and on-chain data instead shows the friction-filled process that this hypothesis must undergo to become a reality.
The paradigm shift in the market is not something that happens overnight but is gradually completed through this 'high-level handover' competition.
Outlook: Short-term Consolidation and Long-term Potential
Short-term Outlook:
The market is most likely to continue its current 'high-level consolidation' state.
Prices may fluctuate around $100,000 (especially around the cost line of $99,570), presenting a tug-of-war situation.
This volatility is a normal manifestation of a tug-of-war and should not be simply viewed as the market losing direction.
The key at this stage is to observe the efficiency of 'supply absorption'. We need to pay attention to whether the fund inflows into ETFs can maintain resilience and whether the selling pressure from 'old money' shows signs of diminishing.
A brief, rapid dip to clean up market leverage is also a completely possible scenario, but as long as structural buying (like ETFs and whales withdrawing coins) does not reverse, this dip is likely to become a better buying opportunity. In summary, the market needs time and patience in the short term to complete this critical 'handover'.
Medium to Long-term Outlook:
The medium to long-term outlook is quite optimistic.
Once the current 'high-level handover' is completed, it means that most of the potential selling pressure has been absorbed by new, more steadfast holders.
The upward resistance in the market will be greatly weakened, and the foundation for price increases will become exceptionally solid.
At that time, the previously analyzed macro benefits—the Fed's interest rate cut cycle officially begins, and the implementation of crypto regulatory legislation provides compliance guarantees—will start to exert its true power.
These factors will attract more and larger amounts of funds into the market.
In a market where supply has been largely locked and demand continues to expand, it is highly probable that prices will enter a new upward cycle.
Therefore, it can be considered that the current short-term consolidation and games are constructing a necessary and solid platform for a healthier and more sustainable rise in the medium to long term.
Mid-term Exploration
Liquidity Supply
Cost Structure at Various Price Levels
Whale Composite Score
BTC Exchange Trend Net Position
Stablecoin Total Supply
(Below chart Liquidity Supply)
Liquidity supply shows a slight downward trend.
The recent wait-and-see sentiment has not eased, and the market's attitude towards cryptocurrency is relatively cautious.
At the same time, liquidity will be supplemented in poor market conditions.
This could mean that the pace of entry within the market is relatively slow.
In a low liquidity environment, caution is currently the market's choice.
(Below chart Cost Structure at Various Price Levels)
The existing top is currently around 110,000, with the short-term cost line raised to 100,000.
The market may be approaching a state of profit saturation, but currently, there is no significant large selling pressure adding pressure to the market.
Under the premise of continuously rising short-term cost lines, if the current persistence is maintained, the slow pace of market participants entering the market may increase market participation costs, leading the market to a relatively risky position.
From another perspective, the current situation is testing the market's ability to replenish liquidity during adjustment times.
(Below chart Whale Composite Score)
Whales still have a high willingness to buy, and key large groups are likely buying widely.
Under the premise that liquidity is supported, the chips gathered in the hands of whales are more.
After the concentration of chips, it may lead to relatively extreme situations in the market.
(1) Selling pressure is more concentrated, and the enormous selling pressure in the market at critical moments may be difficult to withstand.
(2) Accumulation is more stable, the available chips for sale in the market are concentrated, and if whale holdings continue to be maintained, it may provide a better low selling pressure environment for subsequent market rises.
(Below chart BTC Exchange Trend Net Position)
BTC is currently still in a state of large-scale accumulation, and the trend of hoarding coins has not weakened.
(Below chart Stablecoin Total Supply Net Position)
Off-market purchasing power continues to supply, and the current pace of entry is more moderate and strong.
Short-term Observation
Derivatives Risk Coefficient
Options Intent Transaction Ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Options Implied Volatility
Profit and Loss Transfer Amount
New Addresses and Active Addresses
Ice Sugar Orange Exchange Net Position
Auntie Exchange Net Position
High-weight Selling Pressure
Global Purchasing Power Status
Stablecoin Exchange Net Position
Derivatives Rating: Risk coefficient is in the red zone, and derivative risks are high.
(Below chart Derivatives Risk Coefficient)
The overall market trend is basically consistent with last week's expectations. This week's risk coefficient remains in the red zone, and it is highly likely that the market will continue to fluctuate this week.
(Below chart Options Intent Transaction Ratio)
The ratio of put options is currently at a medium to high level, with transaction volumes at a high level.
(Below chart Derivatives Trading Volume)
Derivatives trading volume is at a low level.
(Below chart Options Implied Volatility)
Options Implied Volatility has been continuously declining in the short term.
Sentiment Status Rating: Neutral
(Below chart Profit and Loss Transfer Amount)
The overall sentiment in the market is still relatively neutral.
(Below chart New Addresses and Active Addresses)
New active addresses are at a low level.
Spot and Selling Pressure Structure Rating: BTC is in a continuous large outflow accumulation state, with a slight outflow of ETH.
(Below chart Ice Sugar Orange Exchange Net Position)
Currently, BTC continues to see large outflows.
(Below chart E-ta Exchange Net Position)
Currently, there is a slight outflow of ETH.
(Below chart High-weight selling pressure)
Currently, both BTC and ETH high-weight selling pressures have eased.
Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, while stablecoin purchasing power has slightly declined.
(Below chart Global Purchasing Power Status)
Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded.
(Below chart USDT Exchange Net Position)
Stablecoin purchasing power has seen a slight loss compared to last week.
This week's summary:
Summary of News:
Currently, we are at the threshold of a fundamental shift in market nature. Observing the current cryptocurrency market, we can no longer rely on outdated methods. The core is a 'confirmation' process formed by multiple forces converging.
The external environment of the market is undergoing a decisive shift. The macro forces that suppressed risk assets over the past two years—tight monetary policy and unpredictable trade disputes—are receding.
The Fed's interest rate cut expectations inject liquidity into the market for the future, while the fiscal expansion implied by the 'Beautiful Big Bill' fundamentally strengthens BTC's narrative as an anti-inflation asset. As tariff issues become clearer, the biggest uncertainty clouding the market is dissipating. This is a transition from headwinds to tailwinds.
Secondly, and more fundamentally, is the qualitative change in the internal structure of the market.
The source and nature of funds have changed.
Last week, nearly 1 billion USD flowed into BTC and ETH spot ETFs, and companies like Metaplanet and Figma continued to make large-scale accumulations, marking that cryptocurrency assets are transforming from marginal speculative goods to regulars on institutional balance sheets.
This is a structural, highly inertial long-term demand.
At the same time, the regulatory frameworks in the U.S. and Hong Kong are shifting from ambiguity to clarity. The advancement of the (GENIUS Act) and (CLARITY Act) is like building wider and stronger channels for this flow of funds, ensuring the continuity and growth of the flow.
Against this backdrop, the market's internal logic is also evolving. It is expanding from a singular 'digital gold' narrative to a 'dual-core drive' pattern. BTC remains the cornerstone for macro hedging, while its internal ecosystem (stablecoins) is becoming a second growth engine that institutions cannot ignore, catalyzed by clearer regulations.
Therefore, comprehensive judgment indicates that the most likely path for the current market is to complete an upward breakout of a new value assessment.
BTC is only 3% away from its historical high, which itself is a strong signal of market strength.
What is coming is not a bubble driven by short-term frenzy, but rather a systematic pricing of cryptocurrency assets in their rightful position under a new paradigm.
In the next 1-3 months, the market will revolve around this theme.
Even if fluctuations occur, they may be understood as necessary adjustments before a key breakout rather than a reversal of the trend.
In short, what we are witnessing is an asset class supported by macro, regulatory, and capital backing.
On-chain Long-term Insights:
Macro narratives and on-chain data are temporarily diverging.
The news is loudly calling for a bull market, while on-chain data currently shows a silent tug-of-war at high levels.
'New money' versus 'old money' handover battle: Structural buying represented by ETFs is working hard to absorb the continuous selling pressure from early profit-takers.
Currently, the stagnation in price does not indicate exhausted demand, but rather the necessary friction for this absorption process.
Market Positioning:
It seems to be welcoming a period of structural bull market adjustment and gear shifting.
The current fluctuations and games all seem to be a thorough 'supply cleansing' and 'shareholder hedging' for the next healthier rise.
The market's sideways movement is likely accumulating energy rather than signaling the end of a trend.
On-chain Mid-term Exploration:
Liquidity has slightly declined, and wait-and-see sentiment has not eased, with the market responding cautiously.
The existing top is around 110,000, and the cost line has risen to 100,000, potentially increasing market participation costs.
Whales have a high buying willingness, and chip concentration may lead to extreme market performance.
BTC continues large-scale accumulation, and the trend of hoarding coins has not weakened.
Off-market purchasing power is supplied moderately, with a steady and strong pace of entry.
Market Positioning:
Moderate, Accumulation
The current market situation tests the ability to replenish liquidity.
At the same time, short-term costs are rising, whales are still buying, and new funds are providing moderate support for the market.
On-chain Short-term Observation:
Risk coefficient is in the red zone, and derivatives risks are high.
New Active Addresses are at a low level.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of exchanges shows BTC is in a continuous large outflow accumulation state, with a slight outflow of ETH.
Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, while stablecoin purchasing power has slightly declined.
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 95,000 to 100,000 remains at 80%;
Market Positioning:
Waiting for the market to brew.
In the short term, the overall market sentiment is relatively neutral and cautious, with no signs of frenzy or panic. Unless there is a particularly sudden news impact, expectations for this week remain basically consistent with last week, and the market is influenced by derivatives while being relatively fluctuating, with a low probability of direct large retracements and significant short squeezes.
Risk Warning:
All of the above are discussions and explorations of the market and do not provide directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' Research Institute.
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