Bitcoin (BTC) continues to test traders’ nerves this week as the world’s largest crypto dropped 1.79% in the past 24 hours to hover around $105,560, according to CoinMarketCap. The slide comes just as the third quarter begins, a period that’s historically one of Bitcoin’s weakest.Yet, the broader crypto mood remains resilient. The popular Crypto Fear & Greed Index held its ground at 63 out of 100 on Wednesday, dipping only one point from the previous day but still firmly in “Greed” territory. This suggests traders are staying optimistic, even as Bitcoin struggles to retest its all-time high of $111,970, hit on May 22.
Historical Patterns and Cautious Optimism
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that Q3 typically underperforms compared to the rest of the year. “From the historical data, this quarter is generally the slowest out of all, for both $BTC and $ETH,” Daan noted.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 5.47% gain during Q3. If this seasonal trend repeats, BTC could end September near $111,000, just shy of its record high.
Part of this lull, Daan explained, is tied to the quieter summer stretch when global markets see lower liquidity and volume. Despite this, Bitcoin’s Q2 performance provided bulls with some hope — the coin closed out June with a 31% quarterly gain, slightly outperforming its average Q2 return of 27% since 2014. June also delivered Bitcoin’s strongest monthly candle this year.
Market Signals Still Favor Bitcoin
Market data shows Bitcoin dominance at 65.5%, nearly 13% higher than at the start of the year, according to TradingView. This suggests that, despite some short-term caution, traders still favor BTC over altcoins.
The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index, which measures the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over 90 days, sits at 20 out of 100 — deep in “Bitcoin Season” territory, showing that altcoins remain overshadowed by the king crypto.
However, not everyone is fully convinced about an immediate rally. CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, said their Bitcoin Bull Score Metric dropped into neutral territory this week. “Bitcoin Bull Score is in NEUTRAL territory now, 50. Needs to be 60 or above for prices to sustain a rally,” Moreno noted on Wednesday.
Outlook: Will Bitcoin Break the Q3 Curse?
For now, the combination of steady sentiment, strong dominance, and historical patterns suggests traders should stay cautious but alert for opportunities. If Bitcoin can buck its seasonal trend, a sustained push past $108,000 could revive momentum toward fresh highs.
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