Bitcoin on July 1, 2025 – Macro Context and Differences from the Past

• Today, BTC is consolidating in the $106,500–$107,500 area, after a range-bound and low volatility start to the summer. The structure remains bullish on the weekly, but volumes have diminished, and retail sentiment is optimistic, institutional investors are cautious.

• If we look at July 1 in the last 5 years:

– In 2020, BTC was at ~$9,000, post-Covid recovery and before the major bull run.

– In 2021, BTC was seriously correcting to ~$34,000, after the ATH, but a strong bounce to $69,000 followed in November.

– In 2022, bear market below $20,000, after the Terra/3AC crash.

– In 2023, rally to $30,000, but followed by correction in the summer and bullrun resumption in the fall.

– In 2024, pre-halving optimism, over $63,000 and record inflows into spot ETFs.

• What’s different macro now:

– Bitcoin spot ETFs bring huge liquidity, regulate volatility and give institutional “weight” to the market.

– Interest rates and inflation are at levels never seen in a bull cycle; “cheap money” is gone, so every impulse also has macro brakes.

– Geopolitics is much more tense (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East), and Bitcoin is increasingly becoming a hedge against instability, not just a tech growth asset.

– Regulations are much clearer in Europe (MiCA) and somewhat more permissive in the US (via ETFs).

– Distribution is more mature: more holders, more smart money, less retail FOMO than in past cycles.

• Conclusion: We are in a new phase – Bitcoin has an intact cyclical pattern, but volatility is institutionally subdued, and the bull run may be more fragmented, not parabolic as in the past. The technical structure still favors a new top in the next 12 months, but patience and risk management matter more than ever.