01. Analysis of news: Policy undercurrents and market liquidity reconstruction
The U.S. Congress passed the "Big Beautiful Bill" with a narrow vote of 51:49 in a procedural vote. Although the bill does not directly mention cryptocurrencies, its implied "liquidity code" has already laid the groundwork for the market:
- The linkage effect of fiscal expansion and monetary easing
The core of the bill is a $5 trillion debt expansion + extension of tax cuts, forcing the Federal Reserve to possibly foot the debt bill. The current market's bets on a September rate cut have already begun to ferment—historical experience shows that fiscal stimulus is often accompanied by expectations of monetary easing, and the crypto market is extremely sensitive to changes in liquidity.
- Remittance tax clause: The invisible driving force behind stablecoin demand
The remittance tax clause in the bill, which increases the cost of cross-border capital flows, may stimulate the safe-haven demand for stablecoins like USDT. On-chain data shows that the market capitalization of stablecoins has continued to rise recently, while the daily on-chain liquidity of Bitcoin hit a yearly low (over 20,000 coins), but the stability of whale addresses suggests that major funds are waiting for policy clarity.
- Countdown to interest rate cuts: A dual trigger of data and policy
The U.S. market will be closed on June 28 (Friday) for Independence Day, and the upcoming unemployment rate data for June is a key variable: If it exceeds the expected 3.9%, expectations for a rate cut in September will further heat up, which may support Bitcoin in holding the psychological level of $100,000.
In addition, the contradiction between the $157 billion military spending in the bill and the reduction in new energy subsidies exposes endogenous policy conflicts—the game between maintaining dollar hegemony and debt pressure may force the Federal Reserve to turn to easing earlier, exacerbating volatility in the crypto market.
02. July policy game: Trump's "dual-line operation" and market layout
In July, the market will focus on two major lines, triggering a reconstruction of capital flows:
- Tariffs and migration of safe-haven funds
Trump plans to finalize the list of tariffs on China in mid-July, which may drive safe-haven funds into assets like Bitcoin.
- Debt monetization and liquidity tug-of-war
The Treasury's bond issuance rhythm and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction pace will determine the market's real liquidity level. Data shows that the open interest of Bitcoin call options expiring at the end of September has surged, with strike prices concentrated in the range of $120,000 to $150,000, indicating institutions' layout for the mid-term market.
- Market strategy outlook
The current market has entered the "clear card game" stage: Whether Bitcoin can build a platform above $100,000 will determine the sustainability of altcoin rebounds after overselling. Smart capital has acted in advance, and the July policy storm may become the ignition point for the market.
03. Technical analysis: The bottoming and trend logic of Ethereum
- Weekly level: Bullish trend remains unchanged, 2nd wave consolidation ongoing
Since Ethereum broke through the conversion line at the end of April, the weekly chart has established a bullish trend, with the 1st wave rising hitting the target range of 2750-2850, currently in the 2nd wave consolidation. The long-term view remains unchanged; if the 2380 retracement area breaks, it may test 2250-2150.
- Daily level: Key defense and reversal signals after V-shaped bottoming
After a failed breakout on June 11, Ethereum has dropped from 2880 following a three-wave structure, forming a V-shaped bottom at 2150. The current key points are:
- Defense line 2380: If it breaks down, a second bottom may form (blue line W-bottom shape);
- Reversal point 2530: A breakout will confirm the V-shape as the bottom, starting the yellow line trend, testing the key point of the wave at 2900.
04. Operational strategy and market outlook
- Positioning window reminder
The next three months are seen as a critical period for bottoming layout, seizing opportunities in a bull market may achieve a leap in social class. Altcoin swing and long-term strategies need to focus on star sectors, capturing 1-2 leading coins can achieve excess returns.
- Risks and opportunities coexist
The market is currently in a bottoming phase, with policy games (July tariffs, debt monetization) and liquidity expectations (September rate cuts) as core variables. It is advisable to pay attention to unemployment rate data, the Federal Reserve's policy direction, and on-chain capital flow, and adjust positions closely following trend changes.
When policy and market expectations resonate, the volatility of cryptocurrencies will intensify. July is a key node in the policy game, representing both a risk release period and possibly a new trend starting point—standing at the trend's forefront, early positioning can seize opportunities.
