The current trend of Bitcoin is still in the cyclical divergence channel

Recent technical models suggest that Bitcoin's trend may reach a key node in the second half of 2025. Model simulations indicate that there is a possibility of three MVRV curves synchronously rising during the two time periods from the end of June to early August and from mid-August to the end of September, which could release potential upward space in the later market.

However, it must be pointed out that the MVRV is still in a 'divergence suppression' structure on a long-term cycle dimension. From historical trends, the three peaks of the current cycle show a decreasing trend (the third is lower than the second, and the second is lower than the first), indicating a decline in market momentum after continuous high positions.

The green line, orange line, and purple line in the chart correspond to the three key peaks in this cycle. If Bitcoin can approach the levels of the green line or orange line again during the aforementioned time periods, the price may rise to the range of $112,000 to $116,000, which is a reasonable upper limit under the 'top rebound' framework.

If the market has the ability to break the divergence structure and truly enter a trend reversal state, the target will point to the purple line. Based on the current realized price (RP), the theoretical Bitcoin price corresponding to this level is close to $133,000, and if time further progresses, the target may also be raised.

Historical experience shows that in multiple past cycles, MVRV has never successfully broken through the upper limit of the long-cycle divergence. Therefore, if this cycle aims to break the previous high, the driving force required will far exceed the past, and the difficulty should not be underestimated.