News Analysis:

  1. U.S. Treasury yields decline, risk assets welcome mid-term positives.
    The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has reachedthe lowest level since early June, this change reflects rising market expectations for interest rate cuts, indicating that funds will flow more toward risk assets. For the cryptocurrency market, this signal constitutes significant positives for the trends in the coming months.

  2. "Big and Beautiful" bill: The crypto industry welcomes dawn.
    The potential passage of the U.S. **"Big and Beautiful" billmarks a transition for the crypto industry from the "gray zone" to a morecompliant framework**. This transformation not only helps the U.S. become a global crypto financial center but may also bring long-term structural benefits to the crypto space.

  3. Robinhood launches tokenized stock products.
    Robinhoodhas launched tokenized stock products based on Arbitrum and plans to build a dedicatedRWA (Real World Assets) L2, this move will become an important marker for the crypto market's shift towards "mainstream assets on-chain," promoting the deep integration of on-chain finance with traditional assets.

Technical Analysis:

Bitcoin (BTC):
The current market is under the influence of three major macro positive factors: the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, rising expectations for interest rate cuts; the retreat of the U.S. dollar index; and continued slight inflows of ETF funds. Although these positives are mid-term rather than short-term stimuli, they provide support for the rise of Bitcoin.

Currently, the candlestick pattern of Bitcoin shows wave-like fluctuations and a downward trend, with the price forming a short-term rebound around $1085. Although there has been a slight increase recently, it has not maintained significant volume, and market sentiment remains cautious. Particularly under the upcoming expectations of a pause in tariffs, the market is largely in a wait-and-see attitude.

  • Operational Suggestions:

    • Upper resistance: $1078–$1088 area, look for short opportunities;

    • Lower support: $1055 as defense; if lost, the price may drop to $1008 and $95,000.

Ethereum (ETH):


Recently, Ethereum has been highly volatile, with frequent up and down fluctuations in the short term. The price has formed a short-term high around $2520, with noticeable selling pressure in this area. The 30-day moving average continues to exert pressure on the price, causing significant pullbacks whenever approaching this position, indicating that the market is still in a phase of fluctuation.

  • Operational Suggestions:

    • Upper resistance: $2490–$2520 area, look for short opportunities;

    • Lower support: $2460–$2430 area, observe support effectiveness.

Altcoins:
Recently, ETF fund inflows have been significant, boosting the liquidity performance of altcoins, especially in the staking and L2 expansion sectors. However, the market's cautious sentiment remains strong, making the sustainability of the upward trend concerning. For spot altcoins, it is currently recommended to maintain a wait-and-see approach; early low-priced assets can be held while avoiding chasing high prices at this time.

Summary:

The important macro positive factors currently facing the market provide mid-term support for the rise of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins. However, market sentiment remains cautious, with high volatility expected in the short term, especially in terms of technical analysis, as the high-level fluctuations of Bitcoin and Ethereum have not confirmed further upward momentum.

  • Operational Strategy: Maintain cautious observation before key support levels are lost, and prepare to defend; consider appropriate follow-up after breaking through resistance levels.

  • Short-term chasing high prices for altcoins is not advisable; focus on the overall trends of market fund inflows.

The market is highly volatile; caution is needed when entering. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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