On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index up 0.2%, the S&P 500 index up 0.18%, gold up 0.6%, and Brent crude down 0.48%. Previously, Goolsbee further downplayed the impact of tariffs on inflation, reinforcing expectations for a dovish Fed. U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant: Although Powell's term will last until May next year, a successor may be nominated as early as October this year. Goldman Sachs has moved the expected rate cut by the Fed from December to September, and Trump is calling for interest rates to be lowered to 1% or 2%.

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The U.S. Senate will begin voting on the so-called 'Beautiful Bill' at 9 a.m. local time on June 30, with the final results expected to be revealed on the evening of the 30th or the morning of the next day. The Congressional Budget Office has stated that the Senate version of the 'Beautiful Bill' will increase the U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade. Musk criticized the Senate's passage of the 'Beautiful Bill': it will destroy millions of jobs in the U.S. and cause significant strategic damage to the country, providing handouts to past industries while severely harming future industries. The Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau is conducting a joint consultation with the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to introduce a regulatory framework for virtual asset trading service providers and custodians. The proposed system will empower the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to license and supervise virtual asset trading service providers and custodians, and enforce related regulations. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission will also be responsible for developing compliance standards for these two important service providers, ensuring robust investor protection measures and maintaining market integrity, thereby creating a vibrant yet safe and sound digital asset market.

Reporter Eleanor Terrett reports that the U.S. Congress has restarted the cryptocurrency legislative process, with Senate Republicans and the White House seemingly reaching an agreement to push the market structure bill and stablecoin bill as separate proposals. Europe’s The Blockchain Group increased its holdings by 60 BTC, bringing its total to 1788 BTC. Spanish coffee chain Vanadi Coffee increased its holdings by 20 BTC, holding a total of 54 BTC. The company’s shareholders' meeting approved a maximum investment of 1 billion euros to increase BTC holdings. Metaplanet increased its holdings by 1005 BTC, reaching a total of 13350 BTC. Matrixport stated that BTC is testing recent resistance levels, but the market response has been relatively lukewarm. ETF inflows continue, U.S. stocks are reaching new highs, but BTC's trend is weak. As more Federal Reserve members begin to question whether the inflation caused by tariffs is sustainable, expectations for interest rate cuts are heating up, and the Fed's attitude is gradually turning dovish. Against this backdrop, the market may turn to closely follow the stock market's rhythm, with the strong performance of U.S. stocks becoming a barometer, while the incremental dollars brought by ETFs from Wall Street may become an important driving force for a new rise in BTC.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated: Realized supply refers to the total dollar value corresponding to the price of all BTC at the last time they were transferred on-chain. Currently, the BTC price is slightly above the annual average rate level (similar to November 2024 when the rate was also at this level, after which BTC rose from $74,000 to $107,000), indicating that BTC is neither overbought nor oversold, and the market is in a neutral range. Last week, U.S. BTC spot ETFs saw inflows of $2.214 billion, including BlackRock's IBIT adding $1.31 billion in BTC and Fidelity's FBTC adding $504.5 million in BTC. Last week, digital asset investment products saw inflows of $2.7 billion, marking the 11th consecutive week of inflows, totaling $17.8 billion in the first half of the year. The market capitalization of stablecoins grew by 0.82% in the past 7 days, reaching $253.609 billion. According to Coinglass data, in the 12 July trends since 2013, BTC has risen 8 times and fallen 4 times, with the largest increase occurring in July 2020 with a monthly rise of 24.03%; the largest drop occurred in July 2014 with a monthly decline of 9.69%; since 2013, the average increase in July has been 7.56%. DWF Ventures stated that over the past year, publicly listed companies have invested more than $40 billion in the digital asset space, and 14 companies have publicly adopted reserve strategies, with their total holdings of crypto assets now exceeding $76 billion.

The tariff buffer period on July 9. Trump stated: 'I think there's no need to extend it, but it can be extended, it's no big deal.' U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant: 'I believe that all trade negotiations can be completed before September 1.' The U.S. Senate passed a procedural motion by a vote of 51 to 49, advancing the large-scale tax and spending bill referred to by Trump as the 'Beautiful Bill.' The 'Beautiful Bill' will undergo readings, debates, amendment votes, and a final vote, expected to take several days, with the goal of sending it to Trump for signature before July 4. Trump stated that the U.S. should lower interest rates to 1% or 2%, not wanting to pay higher rates on the 10-year debt. Trump once again criticized Powell, calling the Fed's leadership 'stupid.' Trump remarked that cryptocurrency is a very interesting thing that has built a very strong industry, creating job opportunities, and BTC has also alleviated pressure on the dollar. U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant: Although Powell's term will last until May next year, a successor may be nominated as early as October this year. Goldman Sachs moved the expected rate cut by the Fed from December to September. Goldman Sachs research report: The Fed's signals of a shift are clear, the door to rate cuts is gradually opening, uncertainties in trade policy have significantly decreased, signs of a broad slowdown in the labor market are evident, and the market is beginning to price in the potential impact of changes in the Fed leadership, all of which could become key variables to break the current market balance. Recent movements in the U.S. interest rate market have already reflected this.

REX - OSPREY CEO stated that a Solana ETF that supports staking will begin trading on Wednesday. Robinhood announced that its ETH and SOL staking services are now open to U.S. users. Bn Research data shows that historically, BTC typically rebounds after significant geopolitical events, with an average rebound of 37% 60 days after events since 2020. Cointelegraph reported that a 'altcoin season' may begin in the coming weeks or months. Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson: The altcoin season index is signaling opportunities, remaining in the green zone below 20%. Whenever this index breaks through the 20% mark, it tends to rise rapidly in a short period, exceeding 80%, at which point lagging altcoins start outperforming BTC. On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened with the Nasdaq index up 0.2%, the S&P 500 index up 0.18%, gold up 0.6%, Brent crude down 0.48%, BTC up 0.1%, and ETH up 2.3%. Previously, Fed members Waller and Bowman leaned toward a rate cut in July, while Goolsbee further downplayed the impact of tariffs on inflation, reinforcing dovish expectations. Powell did not refute the dovish remarks, stating that as long as inflation remains moderate, the timeline for rate cuts might be advanced. The Fed is likely to signal a potential rate cut in September at the July meeting, or directly cut rates at the July policy meeting (though this is less likely). Trump may pressure the Fed’s dovish shadow supervisor in September-October to challenge Powell, demanding interest rates be lowered to 1-2% (currently 4.25-4.5%). With geopolitical conflicts winding down and the tariff buffer period nearing its end, rate cuts are on the agenda, and the stablecoin bill will pass. Will the bull market arrive as expected? The conditions for a bull market seem to be in place, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching new highs on Monday, and the crypto market showing signs of following suit, albeit with weaker intensity, awaiting performance improvements.