On Monday, U.S. stock indexes opened lower, with the Nasdaq index down 0.5%, the S&P 500 index down 0.3%, and gold down 0.6%. The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, set to be released on Wednesday, are not expected to change the market's expectations of maintaining interest rates at the July meeting.
Back to the point
Reporter Eleanor Terrett stated that due to the House of Representatives being in recess this week, the hearing scheduled for this week regarding 'Making America the Global Cryptocurrency Capital' will be postponed, with a specific date to be determined. This hearing was originally planned to focus on building a 21st-century tax policy framework for digital assets. The Hong Kong (stablecoin regulation) will take effect in August, and Hong Kong's Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Christopher Hui, stated: The Monetary Authority is currently consulting the market on implementing regulatory guidelines, which will be published within this month. The specific content will involve anti-money laundering and other related requirements, and the number of stablecoin licenses granted will be in single digits, hoping to receive applications once the regulations take effect, with a goal to issue licenses within this year. The White House's cryptocurrency and AI director, David Sacks, stated: The week of July 14 will be House Cryptocurrency Week; the (GENIUS Act) (Stablecoin Act) will soon be sent to Trump, and the (CLARITY Act) (U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) will also soon be sent to the Senate. DLnews reported that the total financing of the cryptocurrency market in the first half of 2025 is about 10.3 billion USD, surpassing the total of 9.6 billion USD for the entire year of 2024.
El Salvador increased its holdings by 8 BTC in the last 7 days, reaching a total of 6230.18 BTC. The London-listed company The Smarter Web Company increased its holdings by 226.42 BTC, bringing its total to 1000 BTC. The Blockchain Group increased its holdings by 116 BTC, reaching 1904 BTC. Analyst Eugene stated: A breakthrough is expected this week; as long as BTC breaks through 110,000 USD, it could likely mean the return of a bull market, and ETH rarely performs poorly during these times. Considering the recent proactive regulatory developments in the U.S., institutions will want more than just BTC; the market positioning and favorable factors for ETH have undergone significant changes. Traditional finance is often seen as 'foolish,' and the idea that 'by buying ETH you can still get in early' is not entirely unfounded. Cointelegraph reported: Due to the passage of the so-called (Beautiful Bill), U.S. national debt is expected to surge to 40 trillion USD by the end of 2025. When Trump signed the spending bill at the end of 2020, BTC subsequently rose by 38% within weeks. Therefore, if a similar price trend occurs after the (Beautiful Bill), BTC will eventually break through 150,000 USD.
Last week, U.S. BTC spot ETF inflows reached 769.5 million USD, and ETH spot ETF inflows reached 219.1 million USD. The total market value of stablecoins grew by 0.73% in the past 7 days, reaching 255.433 billion USD. NLNico statistics: A total of 54 entities released BTC treasury announcements last week, collectively increasing their holdings by 8434 BTC, including design application giant Figma, which holds nearly 70 million USD in BTC ETF, and 18 companies added a total of 7591 BTC. Grayscale stated: As U.S. policies shift towards being crypto-friendly, ETH may benefit, with new legislations like the (GENIUS Act) expected to clarify stablecoin regulatory rules and accelerate the adoption of smart contracts. Cb Institutional research director David Duong: ETH spot ETF saw strong growth in June, with net inflows reaching 1.16 billion USD, marking an unprecedented surge for such products. Metaplanet invested approximately 238.7 million USD to increase its holdings by 2205 BTC, reaching a total of 15555 BTC. Trump signed the 'Beautiful Bill' into effect on July 4. This bill has been controversial due to cuts in federal aid, increased long-term debt, and tax cuts for the wealthy and large corporations. The voting on whether Musk should create the 'American Party' has concluded, with a support rate of 65.4% and over 1.24 million votes. Previously, Trump signed tax and spending bills. Musk stated: Those lawmakers who support this bill should feel ashamed and mentioned that if the bill passes, the 'American Party' will be established the next day.
Trump stated: The tariff letters and/or agreements with countries around the world will be sent out at noon Eastern Time on July 7. U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra: Trade negotiations are entering the final stage, the situation is quite crowded, and progress is being made in trade negotiations with the EU; the next 72 hours will be busy with trade negotiations. If an agreement is not reached, tariffs will revert to the levels from April 2 on August 1. Becerra rejected the idea that August 1 is another new tariff deadline, but the August date can still give trade partners more time to renegotiate tariff rates. Lloyds Bank of the UK believes that the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, to be released on Wednesday, are not expected to change the market's expectation of maintaining interest rates at the July meeting; interest rate adjustments are more likely to occur in September, and the Fed's dot plot still anticipates two rate cuts this year. The altcoin season index has rebounded to 27, having previously dropped to 15 on June 22, indicating that approximately 27 out of the top 100 by market cap have outperformed BTC in the past 90 days. On Monday, U.S. stock indexes opened lower, with the Nasdaq index down 0.5%, the S&P 500 index down 0.3%, and gold down 0.6%; BTC fell 0.3%, while ETH rose 0.7%. Nomura Securities believes that as the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, the market may experience volatility, and the recent outlook may depend on tariff rates. Further clarification of tariffs may help the market eventually rise, and a new tariff agreement may reduce uncertainty, allowing the market to focus on other positive developments, such as the Fed's rate cut theme and the AI narrative.
The tariff buffer period on July 9 is about to end; after tariffs become clear, the market theme will return to interest rate cuts. U.S. stock indexes reached new highs multiple times last week, possibly indicating a good outlook for the future. Once uncertainty is eliminated, time is moving toward a better side, and the Fed needs to communicate with the market in advance regarding rate cuts. The best timing is the rate-setting meeting at the end of July and the Jackson Hole annual conference in August. The Jackson Hole annual conference has traditionally been the occasion for the Fed to announce its latest monetary policy direction, and the market is getting closer to a turning point, with BTC only about 3% away from a new high, hoping for a smooth transition to this new high and a new bull market.
