Market performance overview as of June 30, 2025:

  • Bitcoin rises, leading mainstream coins upward, with some altcoins following suit.

  • US stocks hit historical highs, with market expectations of the Federal Reserve starting interest rate cuts in September, improving liquidity expectations.

  • The market's main narrative returns to 'compliance + ETF', particularly focused on public chain ecosystems, meme ETFs, and the compliance direction of platform coins.

Hotspot tracking: Compliance mainline explodes, leading the ETF concept coins.

Public chain hotspots:

  • Solana rebounds, with news of a staking ETF launch causing a noticeable increase in market sentiment.

  • Meme coin **$PENGU surged due to its application for a US stock ETF, while another hot coin $Useless hit a new high, backed by Bonk platform operations.**

  • However, from an overall rhythm perspective, meme interest has cooled, and the Sol/ETH exchange rate remains weak in the medium to long term.

Ethereum ecosystem:

  • ETH's performance is strong, driving the first-tier L2s like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Ethfi to rise.

  • The established meme coin $Joe approaches its annual high, with rumors in the community that Murad funds are backing it.

AI sector hits a new high:

  • Launch platform coin $BID skyrockets, positioned as an improved version of Virtual, featuring a (3,3) staking mechanism, deployed on Base and BSC chains.

  • The current shorting annualized fee rate for contracts is -0.1%, with a bullish funding situation.

Platform coin sector:

  • Hong Kong platform coin $HSK rises, with the narrative being that Hong Kong brokerages heavily rely on the HSK compliant exchange for crypto business, and Guangfa Securities' stablecoin has been launched on this platform.

Mainstream coin analysis: Technical structure + strategy rhythm.

#BTC Bitcoin

#ETH Ethereum

  • Current price: approximately $2,500.

  • Trend judgment: Moving out of the consolidation range, re-challenging previous resistance.

  • Key position:

    • Support: $2,430 – $2,460.

    • Resistance: $2,520 – $2,580.

  • Strategy tip: If it stabilizes above $2,520, it may open up to the $2,730 – $2,900 range; a pullback that does not break $2,430 indicates a strong structure.

Medium-term outlook: Mid-July may see a key turning point.

Prediction platform Myriad currently shows that 61.2% of participants bet on BTC breaking $115,000, a proportion that has been continuously rising since mid-June, indicating increased market confidence. Meanwhile, the 'altcoin season index' is only 18 (out of 100), confirming that market funds are concentrating on Bitcoin.

Key time point: July 19.

  • This date marks the intersection of a short-term downward trend line and a long-term upward channel, which may become a moment for directional choice.

  • If BTC remains above $106,500 before July 14, it will constitute a breakout signal.

  • If it falls below $106,000, the bearish structure remains valid, and caution is needed for a pullback to the $95,000 area.

Technical indicators brief:

Investment advice & risk control tips.

  • Current structure is bullish, and the market is waiting for confirmation of a breakout.

  • If it breaks $109,800 with volume in the short term, BTC is expected to accelerate, targeting $115,000.

  • If it falls below $106,000, it may enter a correction range, increasing risk.

  • Interest in meme coins is declining; focus on mainstream assets that have not yet exploded from low positions.

  • Long positions are recommended mainly in the BTC/ETH/ETF concepts/platform coin sector, with attention to volume confirmation.