Elon Musk and Donald Trump are at it again with their old script of 'falling out—mutual insults—then shaking hands.' Market sentiment was stirred up, but ultimately, how to position depends on wallets and charts, not on whether they are friendly today or arguing tomorrow.
Looking at the macro picture, there is a high probability that a rate cut will be realized in September, and the market's pricing usually reacts in advance. Therefore, July and August are likely to welcome a window of speculative trading based on expectations. The most critical thing now is to be prepared: don’t hesitate for low-buy opportunities. If you really miss out, don’t panic; there’s still the option to follow the trend and chase the rise.
Bitcoin has been unable to break through 109,000 for a long time, with a pressure test ongoing.
BTC is still constrained by the resistance above 109,000 USD, with the critical support point for the ongoing long-short tug-of-war falling at 106,000 USD, which is also where the 20-day EMA line is positioned.
If this support cannot hold, it might pull back to 104,500 in the short term, and there is even a chance to test the psychological level of 100,000;
Only if it stabilizes and breaks the downward trend line with volume does it have the opportunity to challenge the previous high of 111,980.
The next few days are the critical phase for determining direction; whether it can hold 106,000 will be the first signal for bulls to turn the tide.
Ethereum has completed its pullback; is it ready to attack 2900?
ETH has been consolidating for a long time and finally welcomes a standard pullback: the support point is exactly at the high of August 5th last year, which was previously strong resistance and has now turned into effective support.
More importantly, on the technical side, it just formed a **'piercing pattern'** last week, which is one of the signals for bottom confirmation. Overall, ETH's trend is currently strong, and the probability of hitting 2900 in July has significantly increased.
Remember one thing: in an uptrend, check whether support holds; in a downtrend, check whether resistance suppresses. It sounds simple, but it’s difficult to execute; the key is to first judge the direction correctly.
Altcoin sentiment is diverging: hotspots are rapidly rotating, and funds are unstable, so don’t chase the highs!
The altcoin market remains generally weak, with most coins quickly retreating after peaking, lacking sustainability, especially those with low liquidity. Major funds have already been quietly unloading.
Current operational advice is very clear:
Don't chase after a price increase without volume;
Those that cannot break new highs after peaking are basically a lure for more buyers.
The rotation of hotspots is too fast, and it’s easy to catch the last wave if you follow the trend. Focus on varieties that show 'strength + sustained volume'.
H coin has exploded, surging 95% in 24 hours! Opportunity or trap?
#H coin staged a green candle rocket yesterday, soaring 95.2% within 24 hours, instantly igniting the market atmosphere. Looking back at its K-line pattern, it can be said to be a textbook operation:
The pattern is perfect, the rhythm is online, and this wave of increase has signals of a short-term 'reversal' level. But caution is also needed: after a surge, major players may unload faster, so short-term can be played while being wary of a reversal.
PENGU is strongly counter-trending; can the Meme sector still be chased?
The Meme coin #PENGU in the Solana ecosystem is rising strongly amidst market fluctuations, with a daily increase of over 8% and a weekly increase of 56.2%, clearly outperforming the market.
The underlying reasons are mainly three points:
Pudgy Penguins NFT trading volume surged by 157%, indicating a general recovery in the NFT market;
PENGU relies on NFT IP, with unique value support;
The upcoming 'Pudgy Party' mobile game has sparked speculative hype.
Whale accumulation + community activity + IP expansion are the three main drivers of its recent strength. There are still opportunities in the medium to short term, but it requires continuous observation of on-chain data changes, market sentiment feedback, and macroeconomic influences.
The key resistance for SOL is here; can it break through with volume?
Currently, #SOL has approached the main resistance zone of 150 USD. The resistance points above are 152, 155, and 160 USD, with 155 being the key resistance. Once it stabilizes above this level, it is highly likely to initiate a new round of accelerated market movement, possibly targeting 165 USD.
However, if it fails to break through, keep an eye on the support below:
First support: 145 USD;
Key defense line: 142 USD;
If it slips below 142, it may directly test 136 or even 125 USD.
The next 3-5 days are the core time window for SOL's directional choice.
This week’s major event: Thursday night at 20:30, a major macroeconomic shock is about to be announced!
The U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data will be released on Thursday night:
The unemployment rate is expected to spike to 4.3%;
The expected number of new jobs is only 120,000;
Along with rising inflation pressure and squeezed corporate profits, the market may face a macro-level 'liquidity test' in July and August.
At this moment, the U.S. stock market is at historical high levels—will it break the peak? Or is it a turning point? Everything depends on how this wave of data lands.
BTC is also stuck at a key point, and once the macro signal lands, it will trigger the next wave of directional movement.
The July market is not calm, but rather building momentum. The reconciliation between Musk and Trump is just a facade; what truly affects the crypto space is the moment when interest rates, policies, and data land.
The market will come, but it will only be for those who are prepared.