$SUI price faces a fall below $2 as a rare inverted cup and handle pattern emerges amid $123 million unlocked this week.
Sui (SUI) is up 1.8% today, June 30, and is trading at $2.83. The altcoin's 24-hour trading volume increased by 37% to $760 million, indicating a significant increase in market interest.
Nevertheless, SUI price appears to be teetering on the edge of a potential crash below $2, after forming a rare inverted cup and handle pattern and unlocking $123 million in tokens over the next seven days.
SUI price is in danger as bearish pattern warns of 38% crash.
SUI’s daily timeframe chart shows the creation of an inverted cup and handle pattern. This formation indicates that the price is on the verge of a big drop if the bullish momentum loses its strength.
The slight uptrend formed by the rising parallel channel of the handle is likely to weaken, and the downtrend that began in May could continue.
The subsequent decline of this pattern is the same as the depth of the cup, indicating that a 38% crash from the $2.66 support level is possible. If SUI price loses this support level, the dip could see it fall below $2 and record a 2025 low of $1.651.
This pattern is not the only factor signaling a potential price crash, as SUI also formed a death cross last week, which coincided with a minor increase.
This indicates that the minor uptrend forming the handle of the pattern is weak and may falter, pushing the $SUI below the $1.651 support.
At the same time, the Money Flow Index (MFI) is facing another rejection in its attempt to move above the 50-move moving average.
This is a sign of weak buying pressure, which further increases the likelihood of a bearish forecast for SUI prices.
This development comes as the long-term outlook for the crypto market remains extremely bullish, with the likes of Robert Kiyosaki predicting a $1M BTC target.
In addition to having a bearish technical framework, a key event unfolding within the SUI ecosystem this week also signals that more headwinds lie ahead.
The $123M token unlock also hints at a drop.
Data from Tokenomist shows that over the next seven days, more than 44 million SUI tokens worth more than $123 million will be unlocked at SUI's current price. The impact these tokens will have on the price will depend on whether recipients choose to sell or hold.
Of these unlocked tokens, $35 million will go to the community reserve, and are unlikely to be sold. The $5.81 million in Mysten Labs treasury and $54 million in Series B funding may also not be sold, and will have little or no impact on SUI's price.
However, the primary risk lies with the 9.98 million SUI tokens valued at $28 million that will go to early contributors.
The sale could sell off, potentially causing a crash if the tokens are transferred to exchanges. This event may also dampen the optimism towards $SUI created by Grayscale's inclusion of SUI in the Q3 crypto list.
In summary, the price of SUI is experiencing significant volatility this week due to the upcoming unlock of 44 million tokens.
A bearish reversal pattern formation and recent death cross signals indicate that a break below $2 is likely.