Dogecoin (DOGE) has recorded a slight 0.3% gain today, June 30, to trade at 0.164 at press time. The leading meme coin has been recording choppy moves in the last seven days, with the price fluctuating between a weekly high of $0.169 and a weekly low of $0.51.
Amid the uncertainty, short-term holders seem to be anticipating a potential 30% crash in Dogecoin price after recording $38 million in realized losses within 24 hours. Amid these headwinds, is a price drop to $0.10 imminent?
Dogecoin Price Faces Potential Crash to $0.10
Dogecoin price may be on the verge of a crash to $0.10 after a bear flag pattern emerged on the daily timeframe, signalling that a major reversal is likely to occur. This pattern usually hints at a bearish continuation to the downside after the brief recovery as sellers regain control.
The height of the flag pole shows how likely the DOGE price may fall if it loses the lower trendline support in the brief ascending channel. This support level lies at $0.157, with the downtrend’s strength set to be confirmed if Dogecoin also drops below $0.142
Per the technical structure, losing this support may trigger a 31% crash to $0.109, which will push Dogecoin to its lowest level since 2024. $0.10 has often acted as a strong psychological support for DOGE, and if bulls cannot defend it, the largest meme coin may be on the verge of adding another zero to its price.
The RSI is supporting this bearish narrative around the Dogecoin price prediction. This indicator has been oscillating below 50 for nearly a month, indicating that bears have had control over the price action since late May.
The invalidation thesis for this bearish outlook may be confirmed if the MACD line, which is currently tipping north, crosses above the zero line as the RSI also makes higher highs above 50. If this happens, it will validate a recent expert analysis stating that the DOGE price may hit $0.47 amid growing optimism of a DOGE ETF approval.
Short-Term Holder Realized Losses Spike
Short-term DOGE holders are realizing losses after selling Dogecoin, which may cause a spike in the bearish sentiment. Unlike long-term holders who buy low and sell high, short-term holders usually trade based on the market sentiment, and this may have a bearish impact on the Dogecoin price.
Santiment’s Network Realized Profit/Loss metric shows that this metric dropped to -38 million, a sign that many traders are beginning to realize losses on their Dogecoin sales.
At the same time, Glassnode’s recent X post noted that in the last 24 hours, DOGE was the only top ten asset to record more losses than profits. During the period, losses totalled -132 million while profits only came in at $5 million.
If such intense loss-making continues, it may deter new buyers from dipping their toes into DOGE. When demand dries up, it makes it more likely that the brief recovery forming the bearish flag pattern will weaken, and a potential 30% crash in Dogecoin price to $0.106 will occur.