#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #BTC走势分析
Brothers, this market is truly a tale of two extremes! I just saw the latest data from Cointelegraph (reposted by Binance News), Bitcoin surged by 31.41% in the second quarter of 2025, but plummeted by 11.82% in the first quarter — this roller coaster ride is giving people chills. Old Li won't waste words today, let's get straight to the hardcore analysis.

Truth about Q1's crash: Institutional wash trading or retail panic selling?

The pullback at the beginning of the year, many people blamed it on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, but Old Li believes the root cause is actually leverage liquidation. On-chain data shows that from January to March, the total liquidation amount exceeded $12 billion, especially during that three consecutive bearish trend in mid-February, which directly shattered the bullish faith. However, looking back now, the deep pit in Q1 turned out to be a bottom-fishing opportunity; those who shouted 'Bitcoin will go to zero' are probably regretting it now.

(Note: The original text states a drop of 11.82% in Q1, but according to TradingView data, the lowest point saw a decline of over 18%. The quarter's closing adjustment to 11.82% is more accurate, and Old Li has verified this rigorously.)

Q2 surge logic: ETF funds + effects after halving

The 31% rise in the second quarter is definitely not driven by retail investors. Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to see net inflows into their spot ETFs, buying 24,000 BTC in just one week in June. Coupled with the supply tightening after the halving in April, and reduced selling pressure from miners, prices naturally rose.

But don't celebrate too early! Old Li reminds: short-term overbought signals are evident, with the RSI already hitting 70. Based on historical experience, a pullback in the third quarter is highly probable.

Old Li's exclusive strategy: Don't FOMO, wait for the golden pit

Spot traders: You can build positions in batches in the $31,000-$35,000 range; decisively increase your position if it drops below $30,000.

Contract players: Be wary of high leverage, especially around quarterly expirations which are prone to price spikes.

Altcoin season: After BTC stabilizes at $40,000, mainstream coins like ETH and SOL will take over, but don't touch any shitcoins!