Fiat is the past | MihaiDaniel on Binance Square

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Fiat is the past 

Richard Teng

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Touched down in Bhutan 🇧🇹

Zero fiat. Just me, my phone, and #BinancePay.

Let’s see how far crypto can really take you.

Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.

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Crypto Total Market Cap excluding BTC, ETH and Top 10 (on TradingView it is CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3). If the Cup & Handle pattern on Weekly and Monthly is confirmed and the target reaches $1.99 trillion, from ~$830 trillion now, we are talking about an increase of approximately 2.4x of the entire non-BTC/ETH/Top10 segment. ⸻ ⚙️ Working hypothesis Let's rely on the following simplified distribution of the capital that would enter: • 90% to projects in the TOP 200 • 10% to projects outside the TOP 200 (low caps, shitcoins, etc) ⸻ 🔍 What does it mean for the TOP 200? 1. Total estimated inflow to TOP 200: • 90% of new $1.16 trillion = ~$1.044 trillion • So, the capital in TOP 200 would increase from ~$830 trillion to $1.874 trillion 2. Average capitalization growth for TOP 200: • (1.874B / 830B) = ~2.26x on average ⸻ 📈 Realistic Xs for TOP 200 coins On average, we could see a 2.2x – 2.5x growth from capital infusion alone, but we need to take into account: ⚡ Additional effects: • Positive reflexivity: Growth attracts more attention and retail capital, so it amplifies. • Low-liquidity tokens: Good projects with low circulating supply (e.g. AEVO, RAY, JOE, etc.) can grow 5–10x even if the market average is only 2.5x. • Narrative-based pumps: If a sub-sector (AI, RWAs, L2s, memes, etc.) becomes “hot”, projects in it can generate 10–30x. ⸻ 🔥 Examples of similar bull market behavior: • In 2021, when TOTAL3 grew from 100B to 1,200B (12x), we saw: • SOLANA – 20x • MATIC – 40x • AXS – 100x • FTM, RUNE, SAND, GALA – all made between 10x and 100x ⸻ 🧠 Conclusion • If the Cup & Handle pattern is validated, and TOTAL3 reaches ~$1.99 trillion, it is reasonable to see 2–3x average growth for projects in the TOP 200. • Speculative, undervalued or strong narrative projects can go 5x–20x+, even within the TOP 200. • The distribution will be uneven: coins with hype, utility or “cult following” will capture disproportionately more capital.

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Bitcoin on July 1, 2025 – Macro Context and Differences from the Past • Today, BTC is consolidating in the $106,500–$107,500 area, after a range-bound and low volatility start to the summer. The structure remains bullish on the weekly, but volumes have diminished, and retail sentiment is optimistic, institutional investors are cautious. • If we look at July 1 in the last 5 years: – In 2020, BTC was at ~$9,000, post-Covid recovery and before the major bull run. – In 2021, BTC was seriously correcting to ~$34,000, after the ATH, but a strong bounce to $69,000 followed in November. – In 2022, bear market below $20,000, after the Terra/3AC crash. – In 2023, rally to $30,000, but followed by correction in the summer and bullrun resumption in the fall. – In 2024, pre-halving optimism, over $63,000 and record inflows into spot ETFs. • What’s different macro now: – Bitcoin spot ETFs bring huge liquidity, regulate volatility and give institutional “weight” to the market. – Interest rates and inflation are at levels never seen in a bull cycle; “cheap money” is gone, so every impulse also has macro brakes. – Geopolitics is much more tense (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East), and Bitcoin is increasingly becoming a hedge against instability, not just a tech growth asset. – Regulations are much clearer in Europe (MiCA) and somewhat more permissive in the US (via ETFs). – Distribution is more mature: more holders, more smart money, less retail FOMO than in past cycles. • Conclusion: We are in a new phase – Bitcoin has an intact cyclical pattern, but volatility is institutionally subdued, and the bull run may be more fragmented, not parabolic as in the past. The technical structure still favors a new top in the next 12 months, but patience and risk management matter more than ever.

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🚗💎 Web3 is not just DeFi. It’s real. It’s luxury. It’s happening now. You don’t need to imagine what crypto-powered commerce looks like anymore. We’re already listing: • The cheapest Rolls-Royce Spectre in Europe – with just 2,000 km. • An iconic Rolls-Royce Wraith. • A McLaren 650S Spider that you can buy with BTC, ETH or USDC. • A stunning Lamborghini Urus – ready for summer. All real assets. All purchasable with crypto. All verified. 🔥 Powered by Binance Pay. Curated for true believers of the Web3 era. Want to know more? 👉 Just search “Marketoshi” – and see the future. ⸻ #LuxuryCars #Web3Assets #CryptoIsReal #Marketoshi #BinancePay #RollsRoyce #McLaren #Lamborghini #Spectre #Web3Luxury

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Good morning ☕️ Strictly on halving theory and history: •The next 6–9 months should be the “best months for the BTC bull market,” with a high probability of new ATHs, possibly between 126,000–250,000 USD. •After the top, a typical bear market follows (market declines) •Ideal strategy: exit gradually during periods of extreme FOMO, don’t wait for a massive correction to come.

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🔹 FED: Staying put, but the wind is blowing cold The week was dominated by an apparently neutral decision from the Fed – interest rates remained unchanged at 4.25–4.50%, but Powell highlighted persistent risks from service inflation and Trump’s tariffs. 👉 Translation: interest rate cuts are not coming anytime soon. Markets will have to breathe on their own for a while. ⸻ 🔹 INFLATION: Falling, but not enough • Core CPI: still at +0.2% monthly – too much for the Fed to sleep soundly. • Global inflation: UK and Europe more relaxed, China almost in deflation. 💡 Inflation is falling, but fiscal and political risk is rising. The result? A dangerous cocktail for risk assets. ⸻ 🔹 S&P 500: Technology keeps markets alive The index is moving sideways, between 5,300–5,400, with a fragile feeling. ⚠️ Rising wedge forming. If AI stops pumping, the correction could be abrupt. 📌 Watch out for next season’s earnings – it could change everything. ⸻ 🔹 BITCOIN: 108k zone – between breakout and fakeout Bitcoin has consolidated between 105,000 and 108,000 USD, but: • RSI on daily weakens • MACD loses momentum • Volumes are decreasing At the same time, we see accumulation in spot orders, and ETFs have no big outflows. 📍 Possible final push to 113,000 USD to liquidate shorts. But if it fails… 98,000 USD is in the cards quickly. ⸻ 🔹 ETHEREUM: Playing defensively. But interesting. ETH has returned to 2,427 USD and is reacting very well to the 2,375–2,400 support. ✅ Bull flag on 1D ✅ Positive divergence on MACD 📈 If BTC holds above 105k, ETH can be a "lead indicator" on the next climb to 2,600–2,700. ⸻ 🔥 GEOPOLITICS: Fear comes from the East Israel-Iran tensions are still simmering below the surface. • Gold is reacting. • Oil is holding high (~$76). • BTC has sometimes become a "volatile hedge", but not consistently. 🎯 An open conflict could produce huge volatility spikes - up or down.

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