2024 prediction [2] is purely conjecture and contains many biases. It cannot be used as investment advice. It is only for entertainment and does not need to be taken seriously.

8. As predicted in 2023, modularization will still be an important narrative in 2024, especially fierce competition at the DA level. The Ethereum re-pledge field will also enter the DA layer for competition. In the field of modularization, there is competition and integration between the Cosmos ecosystem and the Ethereum ecosystem. There will be competition between third-party DA and native DA. Before danksharding was implemented, the urgent market demand of L2 led to a certain scale of demand for third-party DA.

9. In addition to the Ethereum and BTC ecology, the cosmos and solana ecology will also continue to develop, which is consistent with the prediction at the beginning of last year. Cosmos will make progress through modularity; Solana will make progress through some applications. In addition, as the modular blockchain matures, one of Solana's evolutionary directions is to participate in the broader encryption ecosystem like other L2s, and its integration with Ethereum will be higher, thereby capturing greater value.

10. Web3 games have achieved breakthroughs in L2/L3 (arb, starknet, etc.), and one game has more than one million users (this has not been achieved in 2023, but it should be mature in 2024). Arb-based game chains will become the forefront of web3 game breakthroughs. Magic will be launched in 2024 with the interoperability of game chain + more games, which will have important implications for the evolution of web3 games.

11. In addition to integrating nft dex, nft lending, and blast, blur is expected to enter nft perp this year, and even the nft market of L2, btc, and sol ecology. Blur still has the opportunity to play one of the most important industry disruptors in 2024.

12. In addition to the explosion of projects on L2, the Ethereum ecosystem is also expected to produce large-scale deflation, thereby achieving value capture. Unlike other L1 chains where additional issuance + fees go to miners as security fees, all new additions and fees are fed back to staking and holding users, which will encourage more users to pledge/re-pledge, thereby further locking in the eth in circulation.

13. Perp in defi will develop on a large scale in 2024, and snx, gmx, gns, dydx, etc. will all generate at least 5 times the transaction volume in 2023; perp may not be an important narrative in the bull market, but it is most likely to be the most fundamental one One of the good tracks.