According to several mainstream financial media reports, Trump is planning to bypass the current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and arrange for a 'shadow chairman' to succeed him, intending to intervene and reshape the monetary policy route. This operation may significantly weaken Powell's influence, forcing the Federal Reserve to consider Trump's team's attitudes more when making interest rate decisions.

The market reacts quickly; the US dollar index has rapidly broken key support, hitting a near three-year low. The continuous depreciation of the dollar will have far-reaching effects on risk asset markets, including Bitcoin – from easing inflation to releasing liquidity, the overall direction is bullish.

However, the crypto circle has not synchronized with this movement.

US stocks soar, but the crypto circle lags behind? Divergence signals need to be cautioned.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have once again refreshed their historical highs, with traditional markets booming, but the crypto market is performing sluggishly, especially altcoins showing a clear trend of 'following down but not following up.'

This divergence is not a positive signal; it instead suggests that risk appetite has not fully returned to the crypto circle, especially in terms of main capital layout, which requires more vigilance.

Bitcoin's technical aspects hide concerns; bullish flag targets are difficult to be optimistic about.

From the pattern perspective, Bitcoin is still operating within a bullish flag in the short term, and there are many optimistic voices in the market targeting a price of $140,000.

However, clear top divergence signals have emerged in technical details: while the price peaks continue to rise, the MACD energy bars are gradually weakening, which often indicates a weakening trend or even a reversal.

If it forcibly breaks above $110,000 but fails to stabilize, it could easily evolve into a double top pattern, releasing short signals instead. Caution is needed when chasing after a price increase at this time.

On-chain truth: the main players are shorting!

You think the main players are pushing prices up; in fact, they are liquidating positions at high levels and laying out short positions.

The asset management giant Abraxas recently established a short position worth $500 million, covering first-line coins such as BTC, ETH, SOL, SUI, HYPE;

Another well-known address, Spoof, reduced its holdings by nearly $3 billion at the BTC peak, and then only bought a small amount when the price fell below $98,000.

Their logic is not complicated: buy low and sell high, arbitrage with the trend, never fall in love with market sentiment.

If the main players are still reducing positions or even laying out short positions, it indicates that the upward trend has not yet stabilized. Retail investors blindly chasing up at this time are likely to become the last ones holding the bag.

Large unlocks are coming, will the shorts win again?

Recently, multiple altcoins are set to experience a large-scale unlocking wave, and the release of pressure may become a decisive variable for the short-term market.

Key focus:

  • $TRUMP and $ZRO: The two coins will unlock in 20 days, releasing more than 20% of the circulating supply, making them short-term 'killing weapons'. It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels two weeks in advance to grasp the rhythm.

  • Other unlocked currencies such as BLAST, ZK, etc., also have a phase shorting logic, but leverage must be controlled during operations to prevent liquidation risks from reverse fluctuations.

Where are the bottom-fishing opportunities? Focus on these three types of coins!

Although the market structure is bearish, structural opportunities still exist; the following three types of coins can be preemptively positioned:

1. PEPE: Meme leader in the Ethereum ecosystem

As staking ETFs are expected to land as early as October, Ethereum ecosystem projects may usher in a collective explosion. PEPE, as the sector's sentiment leader, is currently at a low point in the downward channel; once ETH takes off, PEPE may move first.

2. SOL & XRP: Potential spot ETF beneficiary coins

The probability of approval for both ETFs has been set at 95% by Bloomberg analysts. If they land in mid-October, it is expected to trigger a strong surge. Currently, both coins have about 40% retracement space from their previous highs, making it an ideal area for long-term positioning.

Operation suggestions and strategy summary

The main line is high selling and low buying:

BTC oscillates repeatedly in the $106,400-$108,200 range, and the most suitable strategy remains short-term high selling and low buying within the range, but once it breaks, the mindset must be adjusted immediately.

Shorting opportunities focus on:

  • Projects like BLAST, TRUMP, ZRO, ZK are about to unlock;

  • Use pre-positioning + initiate short positions two weeks before the unlock;

  • Be cautious with leverage, enter in batches, and make quick in-and-out trades.

Bottom-fishing direction locked:

  • Coins with external favorable expectations like PEPE, SOL, XRP;

  • Add positions on pullbacks; in the fourth quarter, you can aim for a 50%-100% profit margin.

In conclusion: Information asymmetry is the key to winning probability.

The vast majority of retail investors fail in trading, not because of insufficient understanding, but due to severely delayed information acquisition.

The outcomes in the crypto circle sometimes hinge on data known a few hours earlier, airdrops released a few hours later, and the undisclosed selling pressure structures held by the main players.

I will continue to share on-chain monitoring data, main force order conditions, token unlock plans, and hot capital flow trends to help you grasp the trading rhythm, use cognitive game cycles, and traverse the mire with emotions. Don’t be the last one holding the bag; be the big winner who predicts in advance.