Last night, the non-farm payroll data was strong, and market sentiment heated up instantly; Bitcoin briefly broke through $110,000, just $0.99 away from a new historical high! But the peak didn't last long, and the current price has already fallen back to around $108K.

Looking at today's Binance gainers list, to put it bluntly, they are all some 'zombie coins' with a market cap of less than 30 million.

  • $FUN is showing up again, with no fundamental support, relying solely on violent contract manipulation.

  • $GUN surged yesterday, but today is making another push; however, the volume isn’t following, so I don't recommend chasing it impulsively.

  • $LOKA and $VOXEL, these two 'old actors', have long entered the stage of offloading; after three years of honing, they may not be far from being delisted.

I thought that with the U.S. stock market closed, altcoins would have a chance to 'perform independently', but the market harshly educated us: don't think too much; you still have to look at Bitcoin's mood.

Are you still concerned about when the bull market will come? The question should be: Are you prepared not to lose money?

Many people are asking: 'Is there still a bull market in the second half of the year?'

But the real question should be: 'Even if a bull market really comes, can you make money?'

Many people do not die in a bear market, but die in the illusion of a bull market. As soon as the market looks good, they get overly excited, go all-in, leverage, and borrow money, thinking they are 'chosen ones', but as soon as the market corrects, they lose everything.

The ones who truly go far in the crypto circle are those who have awareness, strategy, and risk consciousness. It's not about jumping in at every wind change or chasing news; it's about being stable, not rushing, and planning your layout.

Is it meaningful to chase macro data every day?

Focusing on non-farm payrolls, CPI, rate cuts, and other macro indicators, going all-in on good news and panicking on bad news, this kind of operational model cannot achieve long-term profits.

Take rate cuts for example: If there is no cut in July, there will be a cut in September, but rate cuts are never a savior; at most, they are just an accelerator for the market. What can truly bring big funds into the market are things that can be implemented and can make money, such as stablecoins.

On August 1, Hong Kong's stablecoin will officially launch, and the U.S. is also accelerating its progress. Global policies are rapidly embracing compliance, which is the true long-term 'trump card.'

Back to reality: Is the current market strong or weak?

The current market is very delicate:

  • When it rises, it turns back down a bit;

  • When it's weak, it can still stabilize above $100,000 without breaking.

To put it plainly, this kind of trend is testing sentiment. If you don't understand, don't mess around. The prudent approach is to hold physical assets and avoid leverage; don't stir things up. No matter how big the fluctuations are, as long as the direction is right, the volatility is just emotional digestion.

My judgment that Bitcoin will hit 130,000 by the end of the year remains unchanged, and the opportunity to take off in September is extremely high. As for how it fluctuates in between, that's just a process, and there's no need to get tangled up in it every day.

Ethereum and altcoins: Waiting for the explosion.

I am firmly holding ETH this time, targeting over $3,300. The current price is fluctuating between $2,300 and $2,480, with shorts almost released; it could start moving as soon as good news arrives.

Regarding altcoins, pay attention to a few key points:

  • $FUN, $BR and other meme coins, handle with caution, don't become cannon fodder;

  • $BCH's main players are withdrawing; don't rush to bottom fish;

  • $ONDO has policy benefits, can be focused on.

In conclusion: Stop staring at whether there will be a rate cut in July.

We are already in a rate-cutting cycle, either this time or the next. Once the rhythm is set, the market will naturally move. The most important thing is whether you are prepared — not to get rich quickly, but to avoid losing money and to survive.