The XRP Spot ETF's approval odds fell below 80% for the first time in months, fueling Solana's rise on the polymarket as it is already in demand.
Investors have been awaiting the SEC's decision on Solana and the XRP Spot ETF for months, but delays persist.
The battle to get the next altcoin ETF approved is intensifying as time goes on, and every bit of news surrounding them is affecting their odds of approval. Now, Ripple is lagging behind while Solana is ahead in terms of PolyMarket bets. Why? Let’s discuss.
XRP Spot ETF Crashes 75% While Solana Reaches 92%
The most prominent candidates for approval are $XRP and Solana spot ETF. While many more crypto ETFs are also in line for approval, the polymarket and expert odds suggest that both have high potential.
However, today, $SOL is leading the race as Polymarket’s odds for the Ripple token fell to 75% before bouncing back to 78%.
For the first time, the odds of Ripple ETF approval on Polymarket have dropped below 80% since April, indicating investor skepticism. Initially, the odds were 98.2% at the beginning of the month, but now it is crashing as the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit continues.
Notably, Ripple has dismissed its cross-appeal against the SEC, but the case is far from over. Former SEC attorney Mark Feigel argues that the case is still active until the SEC formally votes to reject his appeal.
With this update, investor sentiment has taken a hit, worsening the chances of XRP spot approval.
Interestingly, confidence in Solana Spot ETF approval is growing amid this, currently at its ATH of 92%.
Solana leads the spot ETF race, but XRP could bounce back.
Solana is certainly leading in the number of ETF filings, with a total of 9 issuers awaiting a decision from the SEC. The most recent application is from Invesco and Galaxy Digital, which aims to list it under the ticker QSOL.
In addition to being dominated by strong institutional interest, favorable SEC engagement, and its technological advantage.
Unlike XRP, SOL is free of any litigation and doubts about its commodity status. More importantly, it stands out from other exchange traded funds, as it offers 8% annual returns with stacking functionality.
Not to mention, the Solana blockchain's speed, low fees, and upcoming hard fork make it extremely scalable and efficient. As a result, investors are more attracted to it.
In particular, the decline in the $XRP spot ETF's approval odds is likely temporary as news of the lawsuit weighed on investors. With better clarity on the situation, it can bounce back. Also, Bloomberg analysts have put their prediction at 95% probability at press time, so it's still in the running.
In the end, Solana is dominating, but there is still a lot of uncertainty about who will get the nod first.