The ongoing discussion about interest rate cuts leads us to pay attention to the situation of the U.S. dollar index, which has fallen to a three-year low. Coupled with a decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve's expected slowdown continues to provide support for Bitcoin. The May CPI rose only 0.1% year-on-year, far below expectations, which helps suppress further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The prospect of rate cuts is merely a matter of time, thus creating a positive atmosphere for risk assets like BTC.
Since today is Saturday, we won't focus on the market itself. Bai Ge will share insights on the on-chain funding situation, institutional capital inflows & holding structure.
U.S. stocks' Bitcoin spot ETF recorded over 4.5 billion USD in net inflows in June, indicating continued buying momentum from institutions.
Long-term holders continue to accumulate coins. On-chain data shows that the accumulation trend of long-term holders is strongly negatively correlated with price increases (outflows → outperform), reinforcing the bull market logic.
Technical analysis and expected trends.
BTC is currently fluctuating around 107,000, technically forming support at the 50-day moving average (105,000). Short-term consolidation may break through to the 111K–120K range.
Additionally, analysts expect mid to long-term prices to reach between 135K to 150K, with institutions like Philippe Laffont optimistic about the total market cap doubling to 5 trillion USD (corresponding to a rise in BTC).
As for the policy and regulatory environment.
The U.S. Senate has passed the stablecoin bill (GENIUS), and the SEC is exploring regulatory pathways for DeFi, signaling a pragmatic support from the regulatory authorities.
The U.S. government established a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' in March, holding approximately 200,000 BTC. The U.S. and states like Texas have also initiated 'Bitcoin reserve programs', showcasing a supportive policy environment.
Risk warning.
Fraud issues related to Bitcoin ATMs at the state level in the U.S. are frequent, with multiple states enhancing regulation, causing short-term disruptions at the retail end.
Should there be sudden developments in the global economy or macro allocation, such as a resurgence of trade disputes or a hawkish turn by the Federal Reserve, BTC may drop back to the 80,000 USD range—platforms like Bitpanda have warned of such scenarios (this serves as a reminder to always maintain a sense of reverence for the market). Stay alert to objective news factors!