👀I’ve been watching for a long time how traders, influencers, and just “crypto veterans” draw themselves another alt season based on the template from 2021. Everything is standard:
“We’ll take off soon!”, “TIA at $10, ARB at $5, STRK soon at $1”
Well, you got it.
🙏But here’s the problem: markets change.
Cyclicality is not a law of nature, but rather a retrospective excuse for those who cannot adapt.
Many are looking for reversal patterns that the market turned around a few years ago.
Yes, patterns sometimes work, but the world is not what it was three years ago. And even less so what it was seven years ago.
😎We currently have a US president — an old mumbler and a person who himself stamps crypto pads and pumps liquidity from them. Plus regulations, geopolitics, AI, new capital. This is already a different game, and different people are writing the rules.
❌Why might the “old” alts not rise?
Many projects have not crumbled — they have updated their lows 5–10 times.
They didn’t just “get cheaper” — they deflated.
The tokenomics are broken, the teams are silent or just making memes, the community exists, but they are very weak and emotionally shattered due to record low prices.
Yes, exceptions happen — but as they say, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once a year.
🚀If the market starts to rise, these assets will go up with it, but most of these projects will not take off and will not show x's. Their time has passed. They are not needed by the market — they have neither new investors nor the desire to live. These projects may have an idea, but it is not supported by anything.
That’s why these are just dead shells that continue to be believed in out of inertia — because they “MUST” rise.
🔝But not everything that is at the bottom is dead.
❓At the same time, not everything is lost. Some alts from the “bottom” can indeed bounce back. But not because it’s “time”, but because something stands behind them — a product-brand, activity, investors, infrastructure.
If they do take off — it will be under specific market conditions or with the emergence of strong news background, and rather as an exception than a rule. And expecting 100x from them means believing in fairy tales again.
What to do?
⚪️Don’t linger in old and heavily loss-making positions.
⚪️Don’t expect a “miracle” from coins that have been falling for six months straight.
⚪️Keep an eye on new narratives, liquidity, and strong projects — for this, dozens of screeners and order books have been created.
⚪️Evaluate the market as it is, not as it “should be according to history” or as someone tells you.
💡In this article, I’m not saying “sell everything”. I’m saying — think. Cycles don’t work the way you think they do. And if you want to survive in the new market — adaptation is more important than faith.
🔝And if you don't want to make a mistake — pay attention to the high cap:
BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP
Or at least to… some gold.