#USCorePCEMay **🔥 Explosive Report: Is Inflation Under Control or a Latent Risk? 📊 27/06/2025**
The data for the **US Core PCE Price Index** has just been revealed today, and the market is reacting. What do these figures mean for the economy and Fed policy? We analyze **3 key scenarios**:
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### **📈 Key Data (May 2025):**
- **🔸 Annual (YoY):** **2.7%** (vs. 2.6% expected)
- **🔸 Monthly (MoM):** **0.2%** (vs. 0.1% expected)**
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### **🔮 3 Possible Scenarios:**
#### **1️⃣ ✅ "Confirmed Soft Landing" (60% probability)**
- The Fed **keeps rates steady**, trusting that inflation converges to 2% annually.
- Markets celebrate: **S&P 500 rises**, bonds stabilize.
- Biden uses it as a **political victory** in an election year.
#### **2️⃣ ⚠️ "Hidden Inflationary Pressure" (30% probability)**
- The **monthly uptick (0.2%)** suggests that services and housing remain hot.
- The Fed **delays cuts**, generating volatility in stocks and crypto.
- **Dollar strengthens**, but recession risk looms in 2026.
#### **3️⃣ ❗ "Fed Mistake: Too Late?" (10% probability)**
- If inflation spikes **+3% in Q3**, Powell could **raise rates unexpectedly**.
- **Crash in tech stocks**, Bitcoin falls to $40K.
- **Unemployment rises**, political crisis pre-elections.
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### **💡 How to BET?**
- **🟢 Long term:** ETFs in healthcare and energy (benefiting from stable PCE).
- **🔴 Short term:** Gold and dollar as hedges.
- **⚡ Wildcard:** Crypto if the Fed surprises with cuts.
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**🎯 Conclusion:** Today is a **key day** for the Fed. Will the market party continue or will we see the first **serious warning** of 2025? 📉📈
