Suyay
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#USCorePCEMay
The Core PCE data for May 2025, the index preferred by the Fed to measure core inflation, was released on June 27 with a reading of +0.1% month-on-month and +2.6% year-on-year.
This moderation compared to the 2.7% in April confirms the trend towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
This result reinforces the perception that core inflation remains contained, with markets and economists consolidating expectations of two rate cuts in 2025, the first around September.
However, the Fed expresses caution: tariffs could still pressure prices in the coming months.
In fact, officials like Powell have indicated that any unexpected surge would pause or delay those decisions.
Macroeconomic implications:
Reinforces expectations of cuts in September, with possibilities in July if the trend continues.
Highlights the Fed's “data-dependent” stance: adjustments conditioned on new economic readings.
The Core PCE data for May 2025, the index preferred by the Fed to measure core inflation, was released on June 27 with a reading of +0.1% month-on-month and +2.6% year-on-year.
This moderation compared to the 2.7% in April confirms the trend towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
This result reinforces the perception that core inflation remains contained, with markets and economists consolidating expectations of two rate cuts in 2025, the first around September.
However, the Fed expresses caution: tariffs could still pressure prices in the coming months.
In fact, officials like Powell have indicated that any unexpected surge would pause or delay those decisions.
Macroeconomic implications:
Reinforces expectations of cuts in September, with possibilities in July if the trend continues.
Highlights the Fed's “data-dependent” stance: adjustments conditioned on new economic readings.
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