The U.S. core PCE price index for June has the following main impacts on cryptocurrencies on the Binance platform:
Index below expectations: If the core PCE price index for June is below expectations, the market will lower its expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, and may even strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts. This will bring a loose funding environment, increase market liquidity, raise investor risk appetite, and more funds will flow into the cryptocurrency market. Major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance Coin on the Binance platform, as well as other tokens with high market capitalization, may rise due to the overall optimistic sentiment in the market, leading to increased market trading activity and potentially significant price increases for cryptocurrencies.
Index above expectations: If the core PCE price index for June is above expectations, it will increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, bolstering market expectations for interest rate hikes. This will lead to funds flowing out of the risk asset market, and the cryptocurrency market will also be affected. Cryptocurrency prices on the Binance platform may face downward pressure, and investors may sell their cryptocurrencies in favor of holding cash or other safer assets, resulting in a decrease in the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies and a reduction in trading activity.
Currently, there is no direct prediction for the U.S. core PCE price index in June, but an analysis combining recent economic data and trends suggests a relatively upward bias, allowing for a positive attitude while observing.
Inflation expectation adjustment: In the statement from the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 18, the inflation expectation for the core PCE price index in 2025 was raised to 3%, reflecting, to some extent, an upward judgment on overall inflation including core PCE.
Tariff policy impact: The current tariff policy may drive prices up, thus prompting an increase in the core PCE price index. There are views that the annual rate of the U.S. core PCE price index in May will initially show the effects of tariffs, which may be further reflected in June.
Economic data performance: The housing price index in May rose by 3.87% year-on-year. Although the growth rate of housing-related inflation pressures is slowing, it remains at a high level, which may have a certain driving effect on the core PCE in June. In addition, the total number of job vacancies in the U.S. rebounded to 6.544 million in April, and the average hourly wage rose to $36.24, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.87%. The activity level in the labor market and wage growth may enhance consumption capacity, indirectly affecting prices.$BTC