In July, we will buy at the bottom, a big wave is coming in August-September. I will analyze it from four aspects. A big wave is coming in August-September, we need to be prepared. Buy without thinking above 100,000, don’t stay in cash, but mainly hold BTC and the four major mainstream coins, don’t buy too much of altcoins. (1) A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestine has been reached. Recently, there are not many major global conflicts and wars; the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become normalized and cannot stir up new waves for now. (2) Signs of cooling inflation are gradually emerging. After the initial surge in oil prices at the beginning of the conflict, they have significantly retreated. After the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, crude oil futures were quickly sold off, dropping more than 10% this week. The U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index has fallen for two consecutive months. (3) Expectations of interest rate cuts. Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials show that some members support an earlier-than-expected pace of rate cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that a rate cut should be considered next month; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also hinted that if tariffs do not exacerbate inflation, rate cuts can be expected. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said this week that a rate cut would be initiated if inflation is controlled. The market expects the Fed to cut rates 2-3 more times before the end of the year, but the July meeting is likely to remain unchanged. (4) BTC reserves on exchanges have fallen to a new low, with over 3,000 BTC flowing out of exchanges this week. Retail investors have mostly sold off, and the accumulation by whales is nearing completion.
1. Market Analysis
BTC Market Analysis: The performance of Bitcoin in the past few days has been unusually strong, strongly breaking through the midpoint of 106800 and breaking this wave's downward trend line; this wave has not shown any notable pullback adjustment, just a slow rise. There is currently no sign of a peak, and if it consolidates here, it may increase a lot of short liquidity, prompting the market to break out in a series of upward trends and explode short liquidity! Short-term resistance is around 109000, and short-term support is around 106800; this is the best range for the current small-level fluctuations!
This Ethereum still needs to be scolded more! Soft Ethereum, garbage! I just said it got strong, breaking through the pressure around 2480, but it only held for three seconds before failing! It fell back into the pressure zone; here we can watch to see if it’s a pullback after a breakthrough or a false breakthrough!
Altcoins
During the rise of Bitcoin, altcoins get drained! During the decline, altcoins bounce faster!
Looking at the altcoins in the secondary market, most altcoins are retreating towards the low point of April 7, even Bitcoin hasn’t retraced, but once it starts, altcoins may fall below their lows; the weekly chart indicates that the market has ended. For these few coins, they have entered a long washout period; there may be small rebounds, but the trend is downwards. However, if the trend is down, it will still fall: fartcoin, hype, Sui, Virtual.
After more than ten years of turmoil in the crypto industry, innovation, speculation, and narratives have ultimately fed Bitcoin. Now, the narratives of DeFi, NFT, and GameFi are exhausted, user losses are occurring, the on-chain economy is becoming void, both value investing and speculation have collapsed, and the market has entered a negative-sum game death loop, only BTC is still sliding along with inertia.
On-chain
I’m so tired! The SOL chain really deserves to be called a 'garbage chain', there are indeed many garbage memecoins!
Recently, the hundreds of thousands of market value of shit coins are dazzling; the on-chain market is sometimes good, sometimes bad, and both funds and speed can’t keep up with the speed of new coins refreshing. Especially at night, when foreigners go online, the market is so lively that it’s a race against the second!
Last night, I fought with friends until 3 AM, new coins like MONKEPHONE, corncat, POKE6900 all broke a million, with $MORI shooting straight for ten million, but most can’t last through the night.
Apart from POKE6900 and MORI, which still have some hype in the morning, I estimate they won’t last a day; the others have basically collapsed. MORI is still a conspiracy coin, and the golden dog $solami only held on for one day before it faded. It’s getting harder to hit the dogs on-chain, and the player landscape is getting smaller; the golden dog has no endurance left.
Finally, I want to talk about the Bitcoin bull market, how can retail investors make money?
1. Participate in new projects on platforms like Binance Alpha, virtuals, etc. Don’t expect to get big results, but accumulate little by little;
2. Participate in activities on platforms like KaitoAI, cookiedotfun, output quality content, and use yap points to exchange for airdrops, similarly accumulating little by little;
3. Participate in TGE new projects on various platforms, such as buidlpad, etc., batch KYC to get more accounts; having more accounts can yield greater results;
4. Participate in on-chain PVP, with small risks for large rewards; you can get big results, but the premise is that you must accept 99.9% of the zero-value garbage;
5. Deeply participate in quality projects, accompany the project team in the first phase of construction, and you will definitely get big results, but you need to seriously research project quality, resources, and operational strength;
6. If none of the above suits you, just hold BTC and wait for it to reach 150,000-200,000 each;
7. If you don’t have BTC, you can also wait for the real bull market to arrive. At that time, along with the market hotspots, you can also achieve big results;
