I. Bitcoin: Buy the dip or run away? Look at these 3 points
Halving effects: The fourth Bitcoin halving will occur in April 2024 (block reward cut to 3.125 BTC), according to historical patterns, the main uptrend occurs 12-18 months after halving! In January this year, it surged to $109,000 before correcting 24%, now stuck around $105,000. Key support levels are $103,000-$106,500, breaking below could crash to $63,000; holding above may allow a surge to $150,000 if the Federal Reserve cuts rates.
Institutions play psychological warfare:
BlackRock ETF funds have seen outflows for three consecutive weeks
However, MicroStrategy keeps buying the dips, and the Texas government has also created a $10 million Bitcoin reserve (big players are bottom fishing).
On-chain signals: Long-term holders (HODLers) have low costs and little selling pressure; however, short-term retail investors have costs as high as $105,000, be careful of a market crash!
Strategy: Build positions in batches below $100,000, stop loss if it breaks below $97,000; take profits in stages after breaking $110,000!
II. Policy dividends: Compliance is the key to wealth
The US stablecoin bill is set to launch, with the market size expected to surge from $230 billion to $2 trillion! Hong Kong is synchronously promoting (stablecoin regulations), and Standard Chartered has entered the pilot phase.
Russia opens up for buying coins, 2 million new retail investors flood in, and cross-border settlements between China and Russia may trigger demand.
The fires of war in the Middle East give rise to 'wartime Bitcoin':
During escalated conflicts, $1 billion can be liquidated in just one day (high risk!)
But after a ceasefire, it surged 5% within 24 hours, and Iran even used mining rigs as communication devices (hardcore necessity).
Opportunity points: Compliant stablecoins, cross-border payment tokens (like XRP), and infrastructure projects in war zones.
III. New sectors: AI + RWA = Wealth engine
RWA (Real assets on-chain):
On-chain US Treasury bonds exceed $5 billion, real estate and renewable energy tokenization annualized returns at 7.5%!
BlackRock and Ant Group have already laid out, the trillion-dollar market has just started.
AI + blockchain:
Automated trading robots (like Growly, OptimalAI) are sweeping DeFi, with returns crushing manual traders.
Ethereum:
Gas fees are at $0.003-$0.005, DeFi and NFT costs are plunging, the ecosystem is set to explode.
Warning: On-chain leverage has surged by 30% (1% principal to open positions), but novices should be cautious! Remember the '5% position + 5-minute K-line stop loss' life-saving rule.
IV. Risks and Opportunities: Don’t be a retail investor!
Sentiment indicators: The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 50 (neutral), and renewed conflict in the Middle East may trigger a second market crash.
Position allocation:
70% Bitcoin + ETH (core anti-dip assets)
30% bet on dark horses: Solana ecosystem (90% probability of ETF approval, staking annualized at 5.2%) + AI tokens (FET, AGIX for decentralized AI).
MEME coins: DOGE, PEPE and other Solana ecosystem meme coins rebound quickly but can only handle a 5% position!
Ultimate prediction for 2025
Bitcoin: If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in July → surge to $150,000; if inflation rebounds → dip back to $85,000 and fluctuate.
On-chain signals: The number of wallet addresses has broken 48 million (retail investors are entering faster), leaving 200% room to the historical peak.
Geopolitical conflicts: The chaotic situation in the Middle East may cause short-term sell-offs, but it strengthens Bitcoin's status as 'digital gold' in the long run.
Summary: Three main lines for riches in 2025
Buying the dip in Bitcoin (watch the $100,000 support level + Federal Reserve interest rate cuts).
Capitalizing on policy dividends: compliant stablecoins, cross-border payments.
All in on new sectors: RWA tokenization of real assets + AI automated trading.
Advice: Bull markets often have sharp sell-offs, surviving is more important than quick profits!
#比特币减半 #RWA #牛市进行中… #BTC #币圈暴富
