Based on liquidity, it was not a mistake to judge that Bitcoin started to rise at the end of June, but what is unexpected is that altcoins are completely not following the rise, and there is still no hope for an altcoin season. I'll wait for a while longer; if the cyclical pattern fails, I will also give up my view on the altcoin season. Perhaps there really is no altcoin season in the crypto world anymore, where they drop tenfold or twentyfold and then recover only two or three times. This cannot be called an altcoin season at all. I even doubt whether Bitcoin's market share has already skyrocketed, because there are massive altcoins on the chain that only have market value, but their holding addresses have almost zero trading volume, while their market value can be hundreds of millions or even billions, in simple terms, they are zombie coins. However, such coins should also be counted in the total market value of Bitcoin's market share. Coupled with the continuous increase in the market share of stablecoins, this market now really only has Bitcoin left. Bitcoin's market share is definitely underestimated; in the past, there weren't so many zombie coins and the market value of stablecoins was not high, so the market share back then was very real. I estimate that the current market share is likely much higher than it should be. Sixty-five percent? It must be more; I think it could be as high as eighty-five percent when including stablecoins.

Can such a distorted market really be sustainable? In the past bull market, there were various discussions about the crypto ecosystem, and Web 3.0 was highly anticipated. Now? There is only Bitcoin, and everything else is basically stagnant. If the cyclical pattern also fails, there will be no more bull market for altcoins. Will retail investors still enter the market? Will institutions be tripping over their own feet? No matter how much Bitcoin is hyped as digital gold, the space is getting smaller and smaller. According to the most ideal scenario, after two bull markets, it will reach 500,000 USD in nine years. That's less than five times. In between, there are various uncertainties regarding regulation and difficulties in withdrawing funds. If the cyclical pattern does not exist anymore, nine years for five times, isn’t that better than stock trading? It's legal and much easier. If this continues, any market that cannot attract retail investors will ultimately die. Even if Bitcoin reaches 110,000 USD, or even doubles to 220,000 USD, retail investors will still not enter. Compared to other investment products, it previously had huge advantages: strong cyclicality, large upward potential, and obvious wealth creation effects within the circle. Now, these three advantages are almost non-existent. Could it be that the dividends of the crypto world have really come to an end? Alas.