After experiencing two days of extreme volatility, the current price of BTC is stable around $106,600, with market forces of bulls and bears in a stalemate. This article will combine mainstream technical indicators (MACD, EMA, RSI, Bollinger Bands, etc.) to perform a professional analysis of price trends in the next 24 hours, helping traders grasp short-term opportunities and risks.
🧭 One, Market Overview: After a surge, will there be a tug of war between bulls and bears?
In the past 48 hours, BTC has been influenced by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Trump's remarks, rapidly rebounding from $98,200 to around $107,000, showing a clear V-shaped reversal structure. The current price is fluctuating at the upper range, having entered a critical window for short-term directional choice.
📊 Two, Technical Analysis
1. Moving Average System (EMA-Ribbon)
BTC has re-established above the 20EMA, 50EMA, 100EMA, and 200EMA of the 4-hour cycle, forming a typical EMA bullish arrangement.
20 EMA ($104,342) ** has become the most critical momentum support for the short term; if it is broken, it will be seen as a signal of invalidated upward momentum.
50 EMA ($103,850) ** serves as the second support, forming a support buffer zone.
This structure shows that the short-term upward trend is healthy, but if it breaks below the bottom, it may signal a trend reversal.
2. RSI Relative Strength Index
The 4-hour RSI (14) ** is currently in the range of 73–84, having entered the 'overbought' state;
At the same time, there is a potential *Bearish Divergence (top divergence)** — that is, the price makes a new high but RSI does not, indicating that upward momentum may weaken.
> Professional Interpretation: Divergence is often a precursor to price reversals, but must be confirmed with increased volume downwards.
3. MACD Indicator
The current MACD Histogram has turned positive;
DIFF is expected to golden cross DEA above the zero axis, and if accompanied by increased volume, it will form a *strong continuation signal**;
If the golden cross does not confirm with increased volume, it could be a 'false breakout'.
4. Bollinger Bands
The 4-hour Bollinger Bands *bandwidth is rapidly expanding**, representing a typical squeeze→expansion (explosion after convergence) pattern;
* The current price is close to the upper band, indicating that there is still room for short-term upward movement, but caution is needed for 'top consolidation'.
📌 Four, Additional Risk Control Factors
1. News Risk: The situation in the Middle East remains unstable, and any sudden airstrikes or breakdowns in negotiations could trigger unexpected volatility.
2. CME Gap Attraction: The CME left a gap in the range of $101.2K–$103K on Monday, and short-term filling is still one of the possibilities.
3. ETF Fund Flow Monitoring: If the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs in the US exceeds $300M again tonight, it will strongly endorse an upward trend.
🧾 Five, Conclusion
BTC is currently in a critical range of technical indicators, with bullish and bearish forces approaching another confrontation. Although the trend structure leans bullish, the indicators have entered an overheated state, necessitating precautions against high-level baiting and potential pullbacks. Traders are advised to pay attention to the confirmation of the breakout of the 107K resistance while handling high leverage positions with caution and maintaining flexibility.
> This article is for market technical research sharing and does not constitute investment advice. Please strictly control risks and manage positions reasonably in trading.