Since June 24, BTC has demonstrated a dramatic 'surge - pullback - surge' rhythm, with a volatility of nearly 10% within just 48 hours. Currently, the price stabilizes around $106,950, but from the candlestick structure to the global situation, everything indicates that a critical short-term reversal window is approaching.
This article will analyze the potential trends of BTC from tonight until tomorrow morning from the perspectives of MACD trends, EMA moving average system, KDJ, RSI, TD sequence, and more, combining 15-minute and 4-hour level trends, along with derivative data, market sentiment, and global macro situations.
I. Technical Aspects: Frequent Top Signals in Short Cycles, MACD or at a Critical Point
From the 15-minute level, BTC has fallen below the EMA 5/13/34 lines, with EMA 55 (around 106,600) becoming the current momentum defensive baseline. The moving average system presents a nuanced structure of 'short-term death cross + medium-term support still exists', indicating that short-term upward momentum is showing fatigue, and prices are forming a micro-level pullback structure.
In terms of MACD, the histogram energy on the 15-minute chart has weakened from high levels and is close to turning green. If DIFF and DEA officially form a death cross, it will mark a formal reversal of short-term momentum. Coupled with the KDJ remaining in the overbought stagnation zone, the J value has risen above 100, indicating that the short-term market is highly overheated, and pullback pressure is gradually accumulating.
At the same time, the RSI has fallen below the 50 midline in the same cycle, currently operating around 45, showing a clear 'momentum weakening' characteristic, indicating that the willingness of funds to chase upward has declined.
Moreover, the TD Sequential series has entered the 7th phase of Sell Setup, just 2 candlesticks away from the top signal 'TD9'. Combined with other momentum indicators, it is highly likely that a top divergence structure will form above 107,000 in the short term, triggering a technical pullback.
II. Larger Cycle Support Still Exists, Daily Structure Remains Bullish
Expanding to the 4-hour and daily structures, BTC is still operating within an upward trend. The daily level moving averages are firmly in a bullish arrangement, with the Bollinger Bands continuing to open, and prices are oscillating near the upper band, representing a typical 'high-level digestion' pattern.
The MACD is still operating above the zero line on the 4-hour timeframe. Although the momentum bars are weakening, there has been no clear death cross signal. The RSI remains in the range of 53-55, indicating that while the upward momentum has not strengthened, it has not turned bearish yet. As long as the 20 EMA support level on the 4-hour chart (currently around 104,300) is not effectively broken, the medium-term upward trend still has the potential to continue. Therefore, any short-term pullbacks are more likely to be healthy adjustments and continuation digestions rather than trend reversals.
III. Global Situation is Complex and Overlapping, Options Expiration Creates Short-Term Pressure
The trends of BTC are influenced not only by charts but also by the global situation and market structure. Firstly, the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved. Although Israel and Iran have reached a short-term ceasefire agreement, Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a strong statement today saying, 'If attacked again, we will retaliate,' causing market risk aversion to stir. Any sudden military news could trigger violent short-term fluctuations in BTC, and investors must remain highly vigilant. Secondly, on the macro policy front, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently reiterated the need to 'continuously observe inflation transmission and tariff effects,' releasing a hawkish tone of 'maintaining high interest rates for a longer time.' The dollar index has fallen below 97, and U.S. Treasury yields remain high, posing certain financial constraints on the cryptocurrency market.
What’s more noteworthy is that tomorrow will see the expiration of over $14 billion in BTC options on the Deribit platform. Data shows that this ‘maximum pain point’ is located near 105,000, while the current market gamma wall is concentrated in the 107,000-108,000 range. This options structure often leads to rapid 'attraction' of prices into the pain point area in high volatility, meaning the possibility of BTC dipping to 105,800 or even 105,000 to fill the gap tonight cannot be ignored.
IV. Trading Strategy Suggestions: Control Emotions, Follow the Trend
In summary, the short-term technical structure of BTC is bearish, with momentum indicators pointing to top divergence and momentum decay. If the 15-minute cycle continues to fall below 106,500 with accompanying volume, it may trigger a downward correction, with target zones looking at the CME gap area of 105,800-105,000.
However, as the medium-term structure remains bullish, it is not advisable to blindly chase short positions. Close attention should be paid to the price reaction around 106,500, and signals such as the MACD turning green and the candlestick breaking below EMA55 should be combined before re-entering. If the price strongly returns above 107,400, it can be seen as the end of the pullback, and the market is expected to resume its upward momentum.
The market is in a critical tug-of-war phase. Keeping a calm mind, following the trend primarily, maintaining rhythm as a secondary factor, and controlling risks are currently the most prudent trading principles.
Disclaimer: This article is for market research and technical analysis sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please assess risks carefully and manage positions reasonably.