Rate cuts and ceasefires, is the rebound behind the good news or a reversal? | Trader's Observation
The market briefly surged under the stimulation of good news, but traders remained generally calm - BTC has reached resistance levels, and the risk of a pullback remains, requiring caution in the future.
On the morning of June 24, Trump announced a complete ceasefire with Iran, causing market sentiment to warm instantly. BTC quickly rebounded from the low of falling below 100,000 dollars, surging to 106,000 dollars, with a 24-hour increase of over 8%. Altcoins also took the opportunity to recover, but the question is: is this rise just a flash in the pan, or the starting point of a new market?
Macroeconomic: Geopolitical risks are cooling, but the market is still on the sidelines.
@Phyrex_Ni: Changes in oil price expectations are key. The probability of blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 30%, oil prices have fallen to 68 dollars, and market panic over war has eased. No large-scale panic selling has been seen in BTC on-chain data, and 93K-98K remains a strong support, but there is a significant risk of a pullback with short-term buying pressure accumulating above 105K.
@Cato_CryptoM: The market sees the conflict with Iran as a 'show', but if Iran suddenly causes trouble, all optimistic assumptions will be overturned. BTC lacks upward momentum in the short term, unless there is indeed a rate cut in July.
Technical analysis: Resistance is clear, with a high probability of a pullback.
@biupa: 106K is strong resistance, bottom-fishing advice to take profits. The moving average system has weakened; if BTC falls below 98K, the next support is seen at 95K-97K. Altcoins are in worse shape; if BTC drops to 97K, altcoins may plummet to the 186B-200B market cap range.
@CryptosLaowai: 98K is just a rebound after a liquidity trap; 103K-106K is an opportunity to short. Funding rates have turned positive, and indicators are overbought, so a pullback could happen at any time.
@market_beggar: The short-term support of 98K has been tested; if it tests again, 93.5K-98K is the last line of defense for bulls.
Data-driven: Weak buying pressure, spot market dominates the trend.
@Murphychen888: Comparing the data from June 5 and June 22, the new demand during this pullback is far less than before, and the rebound strength may be weaker than expected.
@CryptoPainter_X: Strong spot buying, but futures bulls are retreating. If the mid-line cannot hold, BTC may pull back to 102K; if it strongly breaks 107K, beware of the 'spike and reversal' pattern.
@DL_W99: SOL weakly fluctuates, with 140-147 becoming a new resistance area, and 123-138 as support, making it difficult for it to have an independent trend in the short term.
Trader's recommendations.
Short-term: Clear resistance around 106K; bulls can take partial profits, while bears should wait for pullback signals.
Midline: If it pulls back to 95K-98K and stabilizes, it may be the starting point of a new round of market; if there is a violent surge clearing shorts, beware of 'spike and drop'.
Altcoins: With BTC unstable, altcoins are unlikely to show improvement; be cautious when bottom fishing with weak coins like SOL.
Summary: Market sentiment is like a roller coaster, but smart money has been quietly positioning. Expectations of rate cuts and easing geopolitical tensions are potential catalysts, but the technical outlook remains bearish. Don't let FOMO cloud your judgment - bull markets often have sharp drops, while bear markets can see explosive rises; patiently wait for the next certain opportunity.
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