June 25th, Early Morning Pancake/Auntie Tai Hangqing Analysis Level Operational Ideas
With Federal Reserve Chairman Powell releasing significant positive signals, the market's expectations for an early interest rate cut cycle have sharply intensified, and market sentiment is expected to reach a turning point tonight. The key breakthrough point in the current market is at the 106000 integer level—an effective breakthrough at this point will become an important signal for the continuation of the bulls; conversely, it may evolve into a bearish trap of 'good news being priced in'.
From a technical analysis perspective, the market pattern dominated by bears remains significant. The four-hour candlestick chart shows that during the daytime, the price of the coin has repeatedly tested the upper Bollinger Band but has encountered strong resistance, forming a dense selling pressure zone. Currently, the price continues to oscillate around the narrow range of 105000, and the frequent tug-of-war between bulls and bears has not broken the key resistance level, highlighting the market's caution before a critical decision. It is worth noting that momentum indicators such as MACD show that upward momentum is rapidly diminishing, while the RSI indicator has turned after reaching the overbought area, suggesting that downward risks are intensifying; switching to the hourly level, the Bollinger Band channel continues to narrow, forming a 'bell mouth' pattern, indicating that the market is about to welcome a directional breakthrough. If the breakthrough is accompanied by significant volume, it may confirm the formation of a new trend; conversely, a breakout with low volume should be cautious of false breakout risks. It is recommended to maintain a high short stance and wait for the trend to clarify before entering.
Bitcoin at the 104500 level is a key support level that is receiving much attention; if it effectively breaks down, bearish forces are expected to exert further pressure, pushing the price down to the 103000 level. Conversely, above, 106000 has become an important resistance level that bulls find hard to surpass; only a strong breakthrough can open up new space for an upward trend, launching an assault on the 107000 target level;
For Ethereum, short positions near 2440-2470, target down to 2390-2350
For Bitcoin, short positions near 105500-106000, target down to: 104000-103000
