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Weekly review
From June 16 to June 23, the ice sugar orange reached a maximum of about $108,952 and a minimum close to $98,200, with a volatility of about 9.87%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are substantial chip transactions near 103,876, which will provide certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
60,000-68,000 approximately 1.2 million pieces;
76,000-89,000 approximately 1.24 million pieces;
90,000-100,000 approximately 1.33 million pieces;
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 95,000~100,000 is 80%;
Important news aspects
In terms of economic news
Federal Reserve and interest rate policy:
Trump criticizes Powell: Trump once again fiercely criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, calling him a 'wooden-headed' and 'complete idiot.'
Trump claimed that if Powell could cut interest rates by one to two percentage points, it could save the US up to one trillion dollars annually, and questioned why he was not replaced. Trump also mentioned that he might change his mind about firing Powell, noting that Powell's term is coming to an end.
Federal Reserve officials' statements:
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bowman and Brainard stated that if inflation remains controlled, they would support an interest rate cut as early as the July meeting, indicating that the timing for a rate cut is rapidly approaching.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller is also open to rate cuts and is considering a rate cut at the July meeting. Waller is widely regarded as a strong competitor to succeed Powell when his term ends.
Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated: If the tariff impacts disappear, interest rates should continue to be cut.
Important timeline: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting will be held on July 30.
European Central Bank dynamics:
Last week, the central banks of three European countries—Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway—announced interest rate cuts, each lowering rates by 25 basis points, signaling a return to a loose cycle to stimulate the economy.
Analysts believe that this small-scale easing wave may be a precursor to a shift in US monetary policy in the second half of the year, especially under the backdrop of slowing inflation, which is expected to support risk assets.
Geopolitics and trade:
China-US trade: Pay attention to the potential expiration of Trump's 90-day grace period on tariffs against China on July 9; if tariffs are reimposed, it could become a new source of pressure on the market.
US-EU trade: In US-EU trade negotiations, the US demands that the EU make unilateral concessions that are seen as unbalanced by EU members. If the terms of a potential agreement do not improve, the EU will face a difficult decision on whether to take countermeasures.
US-Iran conflict: Last weekend, the US launched a conflict against Iran, and Trump stated, 'I hope this strike can promote new diplomatic efforts; there are currently no further plans.'
Analysts believe that this could drag the US down like Israel, and Trump has no intention of swimming into deep waters. The current news headlines are about Iran's retaliation against the US, leading to market fluctuations.
Other figures' statements:
Musk: Expressed optimism about artificial intelligence but remains vigilant about potential dangers, emphasizing the importance of strictly adhering to truth and empathy for humanity.
FHFA Director Palzer: Stated that 'Mr. Too Late' Powell is out of touch with hardworking Americans.
In terms of news in the crypto ecosystem
Market price dynamics:
The stablecoin issuer Circle, listed in the US, rose over 20% during trading, with a market capitalization reaching 65 billion USD.
BTC rebounded by 2.8%, and ETH rebounded by 4.3%.
Regulatory and legislative progress:
Texas, USA: Governor Greg Abbott signed the (Bitcoin Reserve Act) SB 21, officially making it law. Texas will become the third state to have BTC reserves, creating a fund managed by the state government. This fund will only invest in cryptocurrencies with an average market value of at least 500 billion USD over the past 12 months and will be eligible for state budget appropriations. The bill also establishes a strategic BTC reserve advisory committee and requires a report on holdings to be submitted every two years.
US Federal Level: Trump urges both houses of Congress to pass the (GENIUS Stablecoin Act) in August. David Sacks, the White House cryptocurrency and AI director, stated that the passage of this bill is a significant achievement for the crypto community.
Hong Kong, China: Legislative Council member Wu Jiezhuang expressed that there is significant room for the development of stablecoins in Hong Kong, which will become a combination of innovative finance and the real economy in the future. He welcomes internet companies and financial institutions to issue stablecoins in Hong Kong but reminds retail investors not to be greedy and to understand the risks clearly first.
Institution and corporate dynamics:
Metaplanet: The Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings by 1,111 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 11,111 BTC.
Cardone Capital: The US company Cardone Capital has incorporated approximately 1,000 BTC into its balance sheet and expects to increase its holdings to 3,000 BTC this year.
Kakao Pay: South Korean payment giant Kakao Pay will launch its South Korean won stablecoin business and applied for 18 trademarks on June 17, classifying them in areas such as virtual asset financial services.
Capital flow and data:
CoinShares Weekly Report: Last week, digital asset investment products saw inflows of 1.24 billion USD, with a net inflow of 1.1 billion USD for BTC and 124 million USD for ETH. Cumulative inflows this year have reached 15.1 billion USD.
Matrixport Report: BTC ETF cumulative inflows exceed 45 billion USD, with stable demand from US corporate allocations and growing institutional interest.
Bitcoin Historian Data: Last week, US listed companies collectively increased their holdings by 12,400 BTC, while the output during the same period was only 3,150 BTC, indicating that BTC supply shortages have become a reality.
Stablecoin dynamics:
Tether (USDT): The issuance of TRC20-Tether has increased to 80.6 billion USD stablecoins, with nearly 21 billion USD added this year. Tether Treasury issued an additional 2 billion USD stablecoins on Sunday.
Market analysis and viewpoints:
QCP: The global market is in a wait-and-see state, with participants digesting geopolitical news and adjusting risk exposures. The BTC market is waiting for clearer catalytic factors.
Matrixport: Despite the strong influx of ETFs, there are still hidden selling pressure risks in the market, which may pose certain resistance to rises. The key lies in whether it can break through the existing range and drive a new round of dollar entry.
Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder): The US 'money printing machine' is accelerating, and the current market weakness will pass; BTC will undoubtedly demonstrate its status as a safe-haven asset in the US.
Comprehensive analysis: The market has already seen some shadows of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in July. The BTC spot ETF was a key support in the previous breakthrough. If the spot ETF continues to dominate the market, then look forward to a new round of rate cuts promoting a new market trend.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term circumstances; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observations: used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain premises.
Long-term insights
Non-liquid long-term whales
Total on-chain selling pressure
ETF reserve net positions
Proportion of long-term investors holding for over six months
Large net transfers from exchanges
Cost line for short-term speculators
In the current market environment, many investors feel confused: on the one hand, the macro favorable expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is increasing;
On the other hand, market prices appear to be faltering, often fluctuating due to some geopolitical noise.
The steadfast pace of long-term whales
(See the chart of non-liquid long-term whales)
Representing the 'non-liquid long-term whales' with the most financial strength and long-term vision in the market, their behavior is an important barometer of market confidence.
Data shows that the holdings of this group are growing at an exceptionally steep rate.
This is not a tentative small increase, but a decisive, large-scale accumulation behavior.
It indicates that in the current price range, the 'smart money' in the market has not only remained but is actively increasing their long positions, completely undisturbed by short-term price fluctuations.
The 'silence' of spot selling pressure
(See the chart of total on-chain selling pressure)
The 'total on-chain selling pressure' indicator, which measures the overall selling willingness in the market, brings us another key signal.
Even during recent sharp price declines due to geopolitical tensions, the overall selling pressure in the market has remained relatively low, without a panic surge.
This indicates that the current holders' mentality in the market is generally stable, lacking a strong willingness to sell.
The price drop is more caused by the behavior of some short-term traders rather than a 'stampede' escape involving the majority.
ETF: Continuous influx of compliant liquidity
(See the chart of ETF reserve net positions)
The biggest difference in this cycle is that Bitcoin spot ETFs continuously provide compliant buying from the mainstream financial world.
Although the daily inflow fluctuates, overall it remains in a healthy net inflow state.
This force acts like a steady river, providing continuous and fundamental support for the market.
It represents a structural, entirely new source of demand, with its importance lying in its durability and stability.
Long-termism expansion
(See the chart of long-term investors holding for over half a year)
Data shows that the proportion of long-term investors holding tokens for more than six months has steadily risen to 53.9%.
This means that more than half of the chips in the market are held by those who have experienced market fluctuations and have a deeper understanding and higher belief in the asset.
The continuous increase of this number means that the 'floating stock' available for trading in circulation is constantly decreasing, and the intrinsic structure of the market is becoming increasingly solid, laying a firmer foundation for future price increases.
The true movements of whales outside exchanges
(See the chart of large net transfers from exchanges)
The large transfer data from exchanges reveals the true intentions of large funds.
Recently, the market has shifted from a net inflow (potential selling pressure) to a net outflow.
Behind this is a clear behavior pattern: whales are taking advantage of price fluctuations to buy in large quantities on exchanges and then swiftly withdraw these tokens to their cold wallets for long-term storage.
This behavior of 'buying immediately and leaving' is a stronger bullish signal than merely holding, indicating that they see the current price as a good opportunity to establish long positions.
98,200 USD: A verified line
(See the chart of cost lines for short-term speculators)
The average holding cost line for short-term speculators ($98,200) has played a crucial role in recent market tests.
In the panic selling triggered by external news, the market price accurately retraced to this point and gained rapid and strong support.
It also proves that at this price level, there are substantial real buy orders and a psychological defense line in the market.
In summary, we can draw the following views on the current market:
This is a 'structural bull market' dominated by 'hidden strength'.
The market's 'hidden strength' is reflected in the fact that its robustness is not shown in daily price highs but is hidden in the data beneath the surface:
Whales are buying, long-term holders are increasing their positions, ETFs are flowing in, selling pressure is decreasing, and key support levels are unbreakable.
These are the bones and muscles that constitute a healthy market.
The current perceived price weakness and volatility are just the 'skin' of the market.
The result of the combined effects of short-term sentiment, algorithmic trading, and news noise.
More importantly, this surface-level volatility is objectively providing deep structural buyers with opportunities for accumulation, facilitating a large-scale, silent transfer of chips—from short-term, swing holders to long-term, steadfast holders.
Mid-term exploration
Structural analysis model at various price levels
On-chain total chip distribution structure
Increment model
Liquidity supply
Network sentiment positivity
(See the chart of structural analysis model at various price levels)
The current stock top position is around 108,000, and the market may gradually lose upward momentum after surpassing this price level in the absence of increments.
If dividing the oscillation area, the short-term cost lines of 98,200-108,000 may be the high-level oscillation zone.
Conditions beyond these two areas are as follows:
The market has increment, with structural expectations reaching the 120,000 price level.
If it falls below 98,200 and there is not a high recovery speed on the same day, this condition may indicate panic expectations among liquidity participants, leading to a chain of stop-loss orders causing a mid-term corrective structure.
(See the chart of total on-chain chip distribution structure)
From the chip chart, around 102,000 is still the current stage's support level, which is above the short-term cost line of 98,000, belonging to the support level of a concentrated chip activity zone.
(See the chart of increment model)
Currently, short-term participants have just restored some supply, and it may take 4-5 days to gradually observe whether liquidity returns.
Current conditions still indicate a high-level oscillation tone, requiring structural price changes to break out of the right-side structure to proceed with the next judgment.
(See the chart of liquidity supply)
From the perspective of liquidity supply, it is still slightly contracting.
If the market remains active in a low liquidity state for too long, the market's vulnerability may also increase.
Some drastic selling pressure may cause temporary panic in the market.
(See the chart of network sentiment positivity)
Network sentiment remains relatively low, and the overall sentiment of on-site participants is likely adjusting continuously.
The current state may present a composite state of low liquidity, wait-and-see, and caution.
From another perspective, new participants may be needed, and a new narrative context may increase on-site activity.
Short-term observations
Derivatives risk coefficient
Options intention transaction ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Implied volatility of options
Profit and loss transfer amount
New addresses and active addresses
Ice sugar orange exchange net positions
Auntie exchange net positions
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Derivatives rating: The risk coefficient is in the red zone, with higher risks in derivatives.
(See the chart of derivatives risk coefficient)
Overall expectations are consistent with last week. The derivatives risk coefficient has returned to the red zone, indicating that this week, based solely on derivatives, the probability of the market maintaining volatility is higher, even if the short squeeze will be much smaller.
(See the chart of options intention transaction ratio)
The proportion and trading volume of put options have increased, currently at a high level.
(See the chart of derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume is at a high level.
(See the chart of implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility of options has only experienced low amplitude fluctuations in the short term.
Sentiment state rating: Neutral
(See the chart of profit and loss transfer amount)
Consistent with last week, the overall market sentiment remains relatively neutral and cautious. This week's brief decline has not triggered panic in the market.
(See the chart of new addresses and active addresses)
New active addresses are at a low level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC and ETH are in a state of continuous large outflow accumulation.
(See the chart of ice sugar orange exchange net positions)
Currently, BTC is continuously flowing out in large amounts.
(See the chart of E Exchange net positions below)
Currently, ETH is continuously flowing out in large amounts.
(See the chart of high-weight selling pressure)
The high-weight selling pressure of ETH has eased.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has turned negative, with a slight loss of purchasing power for stablecoins compared to last week.
(See the chart of global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power has turned negative.
(See the chart of USDT exchange net positions)
Stablecoin purchasing power has slightly decreased compared to last week.
Weekly summary:
Summary of news aspects:
We are currently in a market environment shaped by two different forces.
The key to understanding the current situation lies in clearly identifying these two forces and understanding their interaction.
First, it is the macro aspect of the upcoming liquidity easing.
The global central bank system centered around the Federal Reserve is transitioning from a tightening cycle to an easing cycle.
The European Central Bank's ahead-of-schedule interest rate cut is a clear signal, while within the US, whether from significant pressure in the political realm or public comments from several Federal Reserve officials, it points to an increasingly likely interest rate cut in July.
This creates a favorable macro backdrop for risk assets, including crypto assets.
In simple terms, money is becoming cheap.
Second, within crypto assets, especially Bitcoin, a profound structural demand transformation is occurring.
This is not past retail speculation but rather a continuous entry of compliant and substantial institutional funds represented by US spot ETFs.
From the data, it can be seen that the continuous buying by listed companies and the massive inflows into ETFs have stabilized at a scale that exceeds Bitcoin's daily new output.
This is a mathematically based, clearly visible supply-demand imbalance.
When these two forces meet, they form the core narrative of the current market:
The macro tailwind (liquidity) is blowing towards an asset (Bitcoin) that is in internal short supply.
Therefore, the medium-term trend of the market is inclined positively.
Structural supply-demand imbalance provides solid bottom support for prices, and the upcoming interest rate cut may become a key catalyst for driving the market upward.
However, one must recognize that the road ahead is not smooth.
There are also some 'frictional forces' present in the market.
Geopolitical noise, such as trade disputes between China and the US and between the US and Europe, will occasionally bring short-term uncertainties to the market.
Moreover, there is some 'hidden selling pressure' within the market, as some early investors may choose to take profits when favorable news materializes.
In summary, the judgment is:
The market is in a 'bumpy upward channel'.
This means we should maintain confidence in the long-term value of assets, as the underlying supply-demand structure has undergone fundamental and positive changes.
However, one must also be fully prepared and patient for short-term price fluctuations, as macro and geopolitical noise will continue to disrupt the market's rhythm.
The key is not to predict every short-term rise and fall but to understand that the fundamental forces driving the market's medium-term trend have not changed.
On-chain long-term insights:
Whales are buying;
Long-term holders are increasing their positions;
ETFs are flowing in;
Selling pressure is decreasing;
Key support levels (short-term cost lines) are unbreakable.
Market positioning:
This is a 'structural bull market' dominated by 'hidden strength'.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
Stock top at 108,000, high-level oscillation zone 98,200-108,000, upward momentum may diminish, breakthroughs or breakdowns need increments or panic conditions.
The chip chart shows 102,000 as the support level, above the short-term cost line of 98,000, which is a zone of concentrated chip activity.
Short-term supply is recovering, needing to observe liquidity over 4-5 days, currently in high-level oscillation, awaiting confirmation of the right-side structure.
Liquidity has slightly contracted, low liquidity increases market vulnerability, or triggers panic selling.
Network sentiment is low, on-site sentiment is adjusting, presenting a low liquidity, wait-and-see state, requiring new participants to activate the market.
Market positioning:
Vulnerable, high-level oscillation
The current market is showing high-level oscillation, liquidity contraction, low sentiment, and vulnerability.
New market movements (increments or panic expectations) are needed to break the current stalemate.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk coefficient is in the red zone, with higher risk in derivatives.
New active addresses are relatively low.
Market sentiment state rating: Neutral.
Exchange net positions overall show that BTC and ETH are in a state of continuous large outflow accumulation.
Global purchasing power has turned negative, with a slight loss of purchasing power for stablecoins compared to last week.
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 95,000~100,000 is 80%;
Market positioning:
In the short term, the overall market sentiment is relatively neutral and cautious, with no signs of frenzy or panic. Unless there is a particularly sudden news impact, expectations for this week remain basically consistent with last week, with the market influenced by derivatives while leaning towards volatility; the probability of a direct major retracement and significant short squeeze is low.
Risk warning:
The above are all discussions and explorations of the market and do not provide directional opinions for investment; please view with caution and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' research institute.
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