Amid the panic prevailing in the global market due to fears of an all-out conflict between the United States and Iran, a message from former U.S. President Trump arrived as a "savior from the sky." On June 23 local time, Trump claimed that the old rivals Israel and Iran had reached an agreement on a "comprehensive and complete ceasefire."
Once the news spread, the market's direction reversed. The oil futures, which had been falling, immediately erased risk premiums, and Bitcoin, representing high-risk assets, saw a thrilling V-shaped comeback, jumping from the depths of panic-induced selling and breaking through the $106,000 barrier. This celebration ignited by "peace expectations" made countless traders believe that the worst was over.
However, before the champagne bubbles fade, the market's euphoria faces a challenge from harsh reality. Is this fragile peace agreement the end of the conflict or the precursor to a larger storm? After the violent rebound, both the market and investors face a fundamental question: What is the next step?
An agreement that didn't exist at all?
To predict the next steps, one must first analyze the completely different calculations of the United States, Iran, and Israel behind this so-called ceasefire agreement. Since its inception, this seemingly clear agreement has been filled with discordant tones and conflicting interests.
Iran's categorical denial: While the market was still interpreting rumors of "senior Iranian officials agreeing to the deal," the Iranian Foreign Minister issued a decisive official statement on June 24, completely bursting the market bubble. He explicitly stated that so far, Israel and Iran have not reached any "agreement" regarding a ceasefire or cessation of military operations. This official denial means that the "ceasefire agreement" lacked Iranian recognition from the very beginning.
America's enthusiasm for success: The Trump administration's high-profile announcement of a ceasefire stems more from Washington's own predicament. Recent polls show that 84% of Americans are worried about the escalation of the conflict, leading to eroding support for Trump, which is already declining. In this context, facilitating even a superficial ceasefire is an urgent need to divert local political pressure.
Israel's silence and the implied meanings: In this triangular game, Israel undoubtedly plays the most important and concerning role. Prime Minister Netanyahu's reaction to the ceasefire news - neither confirming nor denying, but issuing a strict "gag order" - is a very serious signal. In the Israeli political context, this usually indicates significant divisions within the cabinet or imminent major military operations.
A mirage of peace?
The logic of the market is simple and harsh: it trades expectations. Bitcoin's V-shaped recovery was entirely built on a rapidly constructed optimistic narrative: ceasefire → falling oil prices → easing inflationary pressures → giving the Federal Reserve space to lower interest rates → rekindling expectations of liquidity easing.
However, the first episode in this series - the "ceasefire" itself - is built on sand.
While the market was immersed in celebrations of the "Return of Peace," two urgent messages from the Middle East, like icy water, awakened all optimistic investors. On the morning of June 24 Beijing time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu suddenly requested his cabinet members not to comment on the ceasefire agreement. Hours later, a more shocking news arrived: explosions were heard at multiple sites in Tehran, air defense alarms echoed throughout the night, and Iranian officials confirmed that their defenses were repelling Israeli airstrikes. The mirage of peace was ruthlessly torn apart by the sound of real artillery.
Strangely, despite the public breaking of peace expectations, the price of Bitcoin did not collapse as expected, but stubbornly maintained its rise after the rebound. This is the fundamental puzzle of the current market.
The market might believe that Israel's "final strike" is a tactical move expected to "save face," not a re-launch of a full-blown war. Traders may bet that this explosion marks the end of the previous conflict, not the beginning of the next. As long as ground forces do not enter and no further cycles of intense retaliation occur, the market is willing to believe that this is just a "formal procedure."
What is the next step? Three potential scenarios.
After this thrilling journey from euphoria to horror, Bitcoin and global markets stand at a crossroads. The next step will depend on the delicate interaction between geopolitical factors, macroeconomic factors, and market sentiments. We believe that the following three scenarios are possible:
Scenario one: A double bottom in the shape of a "W." The most pessimistic possibility. If the explosions in Tehran lead to significant Iranian retaliation, causing the conflict to escalate, the market's optimistic narrative will completely collapse.
Scenario two: A "fragile balance" at high positions. This is the current scenario. The market acknowledges the fragility of the ceasefire agreement but believes that the intensity of the conflict will remain "under control."
Scenario three: A slow rise towards a "new normal." The most optimistic likelihood, but also with the lowest probability. If Israel's strike is indeed the "last strike" and Iran chooses patience or only symbolic retaliation, the regional situation will enter a period of relative calm.
To determine the market's direction, investors need to closely monitor several key indicators:
West Texas Intermediate oil price trend: This is the most direct thermometer to measure geopolitical risks.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Reflects changes in market expectations for Federal Reserve policies.
Official data: Any official statements from the White House, Pentagon, and Israeli Prime Minister's Office.
Military dynamics: Any new military deployment or signs of conflict in the Middle East.
The storm has not passed yet. After experiencing a false celebration, the world holds its breath. The next step for Bitcoin will be jointly written through the fading gunpowder smoke over Tehran and the decisions made in the conference halls of Washington.
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