I. Market sentiment and trading mindset
The crypto market changes rapidly; the fluctuations of yesterday's wailing and today's celebration are quite normal. After the weekend drop, be wary of emotional trading—decisions made in a non-calm state are prone to errors, and blindly chasing price increases or decreases will only amplify losses. Remember: Trading is a probability game; maintaining rationality is essential for survival amid volatility.
II. Technical signal key analysis
🔹 Hourly level double top probing warning
• The two upper shadows at the white arrow form a 'double top probing' pattern, with the yellow marked level ($105511-$105678) constituting strong resistance;
• Core logic: If this resistance zone is not broken, upward movement is difficult to sustain; breaking it may open new space.
🔹 Fibonacci target reached
• The hourly level 1:1 upward target has been perfectly reached, and the 1.618 extension is at $106798; this position is a key node for long take profit;
• Extreme pressure: If $106798 is reached, be wary of long positions taking profits triggering a pullback.
🔹 Multi-timeframe support and resistance
• Resistance above: $105511→$105678→$106067→$106798;
• Support below: $104880→$104586→$103372 (with $104586 at the 4-hour level being key support).
III. Key points and trading strategies
🔹 Right-side trading signals
• Long conditions:
1. If it breaks $105678 with volume and holds at the hourly close → pursue long on the right side, target $106067→$106798, stop-loss if it breaks;
• Short-selling conditions:
1. If it breaks $104880 with volume and fails to reclaim on the bounce → pursue short on the right side, target $104586→$103372, and stop-loss if it recovers;
2. Left-side probing for the top: light short positions at double top resistance ($105511-$105678), stop-loss if it breaks and holds.
🔹 Take profit and defense strategy
• Long take profit: When reaching the 1.618 Fibonacci level ($106798), it is recommended to take profits in batches to lock in gains;
• 4-hour defense: If $104586 is broken, and if it dips to $103372 without recovering, long positions should be cleared, and a bearish approach should be adopted.
IV. Operational reminders and risk control
1. Double top pattern discipline: Before breaking the double top resistance, rebounds should primarily be for shorting, and switch to long after the break;
2. Fibonacci take profit: $106798 is an important pressure point; do not be greedy, securing profits is more important;
3. Left-side trading principle: Short positions must be light when feeling for the top, and strict stop-losses should be set (stop-loss at breaking resistance), to avoid being squeezed out;
4. Volume verification key: Breaking $105678 must be accompanied by a trading volume increase of more than 50% compared to the previous day; otherwise, it may be a false breakout.
V. Market logic summary
• The short-term bullish-bearish watershed is at $105678; whether it breaks determines the continuity of the market;
• The Fibonacci 1.618 level coincides with double top resistance, making a pullback more likely here;
• After experiencing weekend volatility, market sentiment remains unstable; be wary of the chain reaction of 'profit-taking + panic selling'.
Conclusion: With the double top probing and Fibonacci pressure resonance, long positions should be cautious about taking profits, while short positions can test with small volumes. Remember: In the crypto world, 'not earning the last penny' is the wisdom of survival; patiently waiting for the next clear signal is more important than blindly gambling.
