1. The core reason for the crash below $100,000
Geopolitical black swan attack: On June 22, the US military airstrikes Iranian nuclear facilities, and rumors of the Strait of Hormuz blockade spread, leading the market into a 'Risk-Off' mode, with BTC as a high beta asset being hit hard, concentrated liquidations in leveraged long positions ($600 million liquidated in 24 hours, with short positions accounting for 70%).
On-chain whale selling pressure: Glassnode data shows a 15% surge in large transfers (>1000 BTC) and a net outflow of 300 BTC from exchanges, indicating that large holders are taking profits in batches amid panic, combined with a spike in derivatives funding rates (perpetual funding rate at 0.045%), creating a dual killing situation of 'spot selling + increased short positions'.
Macro liquidity tightening: The Federal Reserve hints at a hawkish stance with a July rate hike, pushing the dollar index up by 0.6%, reducing the attractiveness of BTC, leading to a flow of funds back to traditional safe-haven assets (gold, US Treasuries).
2. The underlying logic of violent rebounds
Trump's sudden reversal: On June 24, he suddenly announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestine, causing market sentiment to instantly 'FOMO', forcing shorts to cover (total liquidations of $482 million, with shorts accounting for 70%), BTC surged from $99,000 to $106,000, and altcoins like ETH/SOL rose 5-10%.
On-chain chips are healthy: During the crash, UTXO holding costs remained stable in the 100,000-110,000 range, with no panic selling on-chain, and ETF funds flowed in against the trend (BlackRock raised $1.3 billion in a single week), forming a classic script of 'institutional bottom fishing + retail investors cutting losses'.
Technical head-and-shoulders bottom confirmed: After a daily line retest of the 200-day moving average ($95,500), it quickly recovered, forming a 'false breakdown + high volatility washout', with a MACD golden cross on the 4-hour level, increasing volume, consistent with the 'break new highs → retest → main upward wave' cycle model.
3. Future market analysis: Key points and narrative games
Short term (1-2 weeks): If it holds above the support of $105,000, look for resistance at the previous highs of $108,000-$112,000; if the Middle East situation fluctuates or the Federal Reserve makes hawkish statements, it may retest the $100,000-$103,000 range for consolidation.
Medium-term narrative:
'Digital gold' vs 'risk assets': After the geopolitical conflict eases, BTC needs to prove its hedging against inflation (focus on US CPI/PCE data); if the Federal Reserve shifts to rate cuts, a liquidity-driven main upward wave can be expected.
Continued ETF funding: Spot ETFs have become a 'programmatic bottom support', with $94,000-$95,000 being a strong buying area; a breakthrough above $110,000 requires a net inflow of over $1.5 billion in a single week.
Metaphysical warning: The repeatability of Trump's policies (tariffs/crypto regulation) remains the biggest X factor; under frequent black swan events, it is advisable to 'use low leverage + staggered orders' to avoid FOMO chasing and panic selling.
Summary: This market movement is essentially a violent washout caused by 'geopolitical panic + leveraged liquidation', but on-chain data and institutional behavior indicate that the foundation of the bull market is not broken. In the short term, closely monitor the $105,000 watershed; if it breaks through, it may accelerate towards the peak, while a drop below will lead to range consolidation. Remember: bull markets often have sharp drops, while bear markets have slow rises; those holding spot assets are the true winners.
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