【Cryptocurrency Cycle Outlook】 The year-end market script is surfacing, seize this structural opportunity!
Macroeconomic Cycle Assessment
The current market is in a typical bear-to-bull transitional phase. Combining historical cycle patterns with on-chain capital flow data, this round of adjustments may extend until the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision window in December. Technically, BTC's weekly MA60 (currently about $72,000) and the extreme long-short ratio in the futures market provide dual support. Unless an external extreme risk event occurs (such as an escalation of geopolitical conflicts or USDT decoupling), the probability of temporarily falling below the $70,000 threshold is very low.
Strategic Layout Window
September to November may open a golden accumulation period:
Main force chip sinking signals: According to Glassnode's on-chain data, the stock of stablecoins on exchanges has fallen to a low level, while the proportion of whale addresses holding assets continues to rise, indicating that institutions are quietly accumulating cheap chips.
Options expiration effect: The implied volatility difference between put and call options expiring in the fourth quarter is narrowing, and market sentiment is in the "hope born out of despair" phase.
Sector Rotation Strategy
Priority One: Meme Recovery Concept
Focus on AI-driven meme assets (such as TAO, TAO, GOAT) and RWA tracks (RWACOINS, RWACOINS, TREASURE). The former aligns with the computing power narrative, while the latter binds to the trend of real-world asset tokenization.
Priority Two: DeFi Liquidity Mining
Focus on leading DEXs on Ethereum L2 networks (such as Arbitrum, Base) (UNI, UNI, SUSHI) and re-staking protocols (EIGEN, EIGEN, SSV) to capture the capital inflow dividends after the release of liquidation risks.
Defensive Allocation: BTC ecological inscriptions (BRC-20) and Ethereum PoS staking derivatives (BRC-20) and Ethereum PoS staking derivatives (ETHFI) to hedge against potential policy risks.
Risk Warning
At the macro level, be wary of short-term liquidity tightening triggered by unexpected results from the November U.S. elections;
At the technical level, observe whether BTC's daily MACD can complete bottom divergence repair before the end of December.
Conclusion
This cycle may once again showcase the classic "Christmas market" script, but the profit effect will concentrate on targets with real cash flow and technological innovation. Now is a crucial period for exchanging bullets for chips—are you ready to sow seeds in the winter? Share your bold predictions in the comments! $BTC