【In-Depth Analysis】The Fires of War in the Middle East Ignite Global Turmoil! Three Major Signals Indicate the Wealth Code on the Eve of the Next Bull Market!
The current global financial market is experiencing a dual strangulation of geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies. The conflict between Iran and Israel continues to escalate, and the Strait of Hormuz—this vital energy artery that controls 20% of global oil supply—has become the core battlefield of the long and short game. The naval deployments of the U.S. and its allies are in a subtle standoff with Iran's Revolutionary Guard missile reserves, and any localized blockade could trigger a three-digit oil price era, igniting a global stagflation crisis.
But the real risks have never been in plain sight! The "Made in America" tariff barriers brewed by the Trump administration are now on a countdown, compounded by the consumption-based confrontation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, with three major geopolitical fractures reconstructing the global economic landscape for 2024. Wall Street's quantitative models indicate that the current market volatility index (VIX) has surpassed a critical threshold, with the proportion of safe-haven asset allocations reaching a new high since the 2020 pandemic.
Capital never sleeps, but it requires clear awareness: the last bull market driven by "animal spirits" has become a swan song. Data shows that during the peak of the crypto market in 2021, retail trading volume accounted for as much as 67%, whereas the current institutional holding ratio has surpassed 43%. As the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle coincides with Bitcoin spot ETF fund accumulation, a "value reassessment" led by traditional financial giants is unfolding.
Three core signals are worth noting: 1) The holding cost zones of asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity are becoming ironclad bottoms; 2) The breakeven point for Bitcoin miners has been priced in with the Federal Reserve's interest rate peak; 3) The probability of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval has risen to 92%. This is not a simple repetition of history, but a structural upgrade of wealth reshuffling—when traditional capital resonates with emerging technologies, the next peak may give birth to true digital gold.
Investment Advice: Prioritize positioning in leading ecological projects with real cash flows and cross-cycle risk resistance, with a focus on the regulatory arbitrage window during the compliance process. Remember, bull markets are never just waited for; they are earned through cognitive discrepancies! $BTC