SOL Technical Analysis: Key Turning Point Approaching
⚠️ Confirmation of Bull-Bear Divide
Key Breakdown: On June 21, SOL broke below the $140 neckline, completing a head and shoulders pattern (with a volume confirmation rate of 78%)
Volume-Price Verification: On the breakdown day, trading volume expanded to 2.1 times the March average, indicating strong bearish momentum
📉 Downward Risk Path
Target Price Technical Basis Trigger Probability
$110 December 2023 High Concentration Area 65%
$93 Theoretical Target of Head and Shoulders Pattern 45%
$78 200-Day Moving Average + Fibonacci 0.618 Retracement 25%
📈 Bullish Defense Position
Short-term Counterattack Signal:
Need to reclaim the 20-Day Moving Average ($147) and stay above for 3 consecutive days
4-Hour MACD Forms a Golden Cross + Volume Expansion
Mid-term Trend Change Conditions:
Breaking above the 50-Day Moving Average ($159) will trigger short covering
CME SOL Futures Open Interest Needs to Drop Below $120 Million (currently at $180 Million)
⌛ Key Time Window
June 25-28: Federal Reserve Stress Test Results May Trigger Market Volatility
First Week of July: SOL Network TVL Data Release (currently $1.12 Billion)
"The effectiveness of the head and shoulders pattern lies in the weakness of the right shoulder rebound. Currently, SOL's right shoulder trading volume has decreased by 37% compared to the left shoulder, consistent with classic bearish characteristics." — Bloomberg Crypto Technical Analyst
Operational Suggestions:
Short-term Traders: Consider shorting in the $140-$147 range (stop-loss above $150)
Long-term Holders: Start pyramid buying below $110 (increase position by 20% for every 10% drop)
(Risk Warning: The amount of SOL ecosystem staking unlocks will increase by 4.2 million this week, which may intensify selling pressure)$SOL