2024 Second Half Cryptocurrency Market Forecast: Key Time Nodes and Layout Strategies
Core Viewpoints
Macroeconomic Cycle Positioning: Currently in a mid-term adjustment phase with rising expectations for Fed interest rate cuts + continuous inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds.
Technical Support: BTC $60,000-$65,000 is a strong psychological support zone, and CME futures open interest shows institutions are intensively defending this range.
Historical Pattern Validation: In the past three halving cycles, a major upward wave occurred in the 6-8 months following the event (data backtesting for 2016, 2019, and 2020).
Phased Market Forecast
Phase One: Consolidation and Bottoming Period (September-November 2024)
Catalysts:
Digesting uncertainty from U.S. election policies
October CPI data may strengthen interest rate cut expectations
Operational Strategy:
Altcoin Gold Layout Window: Focus on capturing quality projects with market cap < $500 million and FDV < $2 billion
Sector Rotation Order:
Priority on MEME track (community activity indicator > 30% weekly growth)
Second choice AI + RWA (real income > $1 million/month projects)
Defensive allocation in DeFi blue chips (top 10 protocols by TVL)
Phase Two: Trend Start Period (December 2024 - Q1 2025)
Key Signals:
Bitcoin dominance drops below 50%
Total market cap of stablecoins surpasses $200 billion (currently $160 billion)
Explosive Sectors:
GameFi (GTA6 blockchain game concept catalyst)
Bitcoin L2 (monitoring fund inflow in the Stacks ecosystem)
Extreme Scenario Warning
Black Swan Threshold:
If BTC weekly close drops below $58,000 (2024 upward trend line), hedging strategy needs to be activated
Geopolitical conflicts leading to crude oil breaking $100/barrel will put pressure on risk assets
Smart Money Layout Map
Time Window Institutional Movements Retail Investor Response Plans
September-October OTC large discount purchases Dollar-cost averaging top 200 altcoins
November Market makers stockpile perpetual contract long positions Focus on newly listed coins (listed < 90 days)
December Hedge funds increase positions in call options with butterfly spreads Hold spot + sell out-of-the-money call options
Discussion Points
Interactive Topic: What catalysts do you think will trigger the market ahead of time? Feel free to share your script in the comments! 🔥$BTC