1. Internal selling and capital games of institutions 'showing off'
The XRP market is trapped in a 'Ponzi-style' game between early players and institutions. Former Ripple CTO Jed McCaleb has cumulatively sold 9 billion XRP over eight years (cashing out $3.12 billion), with his remaining holdings about to be cleared. In the past 30 days, related addresses have sold an average of $68.5 million daily, with a profit margin exceeding 300%.
Despite Dubai's sovereign fund claiming to tokenize $16 billion in real estate with XRP, on-chain data shows it only holds 12 million XRP (approximately $2.8 million), a discrepancy of 570 times from the actual advertised scale, suspected as a market cap management tactic of 'moving from left hand to right hand'. Currently, 70% of the circulating supply is taken over by new retail investors who have held their tokens for less than 6 months, with an on-chain profit and loss ratio of 0.89, and the cost basis for large whales is only $0.3, while the current price has a 700% premium at $2.4, indicating significant bubble risk.
2. Market sentiment: The collapse of faith and the tearing of speculative frenzy
The XRP community is experiencing cognitive dissonance:
Short logic: SEC lawsuit undecided (only secondary sales are exempt in 2023, primary sales remain illegal), Ripple controls 50% of token supply, centralization is highly questioned.
Bullish fantasies: The technical 'bull flag' pattern and support at the 200-day moving average of $2.37 are being hyped, with RSI rebounding from 29 to 52 creating a false 'golden pit' illusion. However, 500 million XRP transferred to cold wallets are packaged as 'institutional accumulation', but 90% are actually internal wallets of exchanges.
Historical lessons show that after whales accumulated 50 million XRP in September 2021, prices soared by 200%, but the SEC lawsuit caused a halving in two months; the current market may replay this script.
3. Strategy: Risk aversion first, refuse to take over.
Spot avoidance: The long-term value of centralized tokens is questionable, price volatility highly depends on news manipulation, and the risk of sharp rises and falls is extremely high.
Hedging short: Open a 5% short position at the current price of $2.4, increase to 15% if it breaks $2.8, stop loss at $3.0; close and go long if it falls below $1.6 (short-term speculation).
Capital transfer: BNB Chain ecological tokens (like CAKE, FORM) have recently seen gains exceeding XRP, able to transfer 50% of positions to undervalued protocols.
4. Future predictions: Countdown to collapse vs. escalation of scams
Collapse script (70% probability): If the SEC restarts the securities lawsuit, Ripple may be forced to destroy its token reserve, and the price may fall below $1.3, triggering a retail sell-off down to $0.8 (the bottom of the 2018 bear market).
Scam survival (30% probability): If the Grayscale XRP ETF is approved, whales may sell off on the good news, briefly spiking to $3.5 before crashing.
Ultimate judgment: If Ripple executives are criminally prosecuted for securities fraud (referencing the FTX incident), XRP may be delisted from mainstream exchanges.
5. Exchange movements: Risk warning signals.
Binance will reduce the leverage for the XRP/USDT contract from 125 times to 10 times on June 24, 2025, while launching a BNB staking mining activity for XRP (annualized 287%). This move may signal the platform's warning of liquidity risks for XRP, with high-yield activities potentially attracting retail investors, further exacerbating market volatility.
The death spiral under technological lag and legal dilemmas
As a token that has been continuously drained by the founding team for 8 years and is technically lagging 10 years behind ETH/SOL, its position in the top five by market cap relies on regulatory games and market manipulation. In the current tug-of-war between bulls and bears, retail investors are the biggest risk bearers. It is recommended that investors stay away from the spot market, participate in derivatives hedging with only a very small position, and closely monitor the progress of the SEC lawsuit and movements of on-chain whales.
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