Hello everyone, I am analyst Old Mo.
Spot, contracts, on-chain golden dog all-round analyst.
My friend, do you want to eat fish? If you want to eat, just speak up, and Old Mo will deliver it to you.
Having experienced many bull and bear markets, old traders record their own trading diaries; the bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish.
Preface
Rollercoaster in the crypto circle! The ceasefire between Israel and Iran caused confusion, BTC plays a $100,000 bungee jumping battle report.
Trump just said ceasefire, and the Israeli military gets hit with missiles; CCTV suddenly announces ceasefire, crypto prices instantly soar 8%; Iran denies agreement, BTC stuck at $105,000.
Bloody market
BTC: $98,200 ↗ $106,000 ↘ $105,000 (daily volatility 8%).
ETH: $2111 ↗ $2440 (still stuck under $2500 pressure)
SOL: $121 ↗ $147 (big players taking the opportunity to run).
Attention, my friends.
News is more stimulating than K-lines; it's safest for spot holders to lie flat.
ETH is as weak as a sick chicken; don't chase highs on SOL's rebound.
Remember: This kind of market specifically targets contract gambling dogs!
First: BTC ETH today's market analysis.
BTC: Current market truth:
Pure contract funds are pulling the market, while spot big players haven't moved at all.
The crazier it climbs, the harder it falls (historical script).
Now completely controlled by news, technical analysis is ineffective.
Some current situations:
Long positions stopped out, short positions squeezed.
Domestic players collectively missed out, hitting their thighs in frustration.
Volatility is too fast; operational difficulty is hell-level.
Current strategy:
Current price only suitable for short-term quick in and out.
Focus on finding positions to short (wait for rebound exhaustion).
Stop losses must be in place to prevent Trump from going crazy again.
Remember: Without spot support, any rise is just a castle in the air!
ETH market:
Violent gap filling completed:
Accurately fills the $2400 gap (also pushing for 40 points up).
Bitcoin leads the way, pulling ETH up with it.
Key position:
Upper resistance: $2440 (near previous high)
Key linkage: Watch if Bitcoin can break through $106,800.
Second: The flames of war reignite in the Middle East! Iranian missiles strike US military bases at night, causing a huge shock to global markets.
Battle report.
Iran's revenge operation:
Early morning raid on the US military base in Qatar, launching 19 missiles.
Claims 'revenge against the US for bombing nuclear facilities', but 'notified' the US in advance (?).
Qatar: Full interception, zero casualties (the base had evacuated early).
US response:
Trump enters the war room but states 'does not want to escalate the war'.
Mocking Iran's counterattack as 'weak' (13 intercepted, 1 missed).
Hint: It's time to stop; both Israel and Iran should cool down.
Market impact
BTC response: rebounds after a midnight spike (the $100,000 mark is a life-and-death line for longs and shorts) War → Safe-haven buying vs. ceasefire expectations → Selling pressure.
Key point: Iran's 'thunderous noise but little rain', actual lethality is limited; Trump doesn't want to fight; market panic may gradually dissipate.
Beware of subsequent Iranian 'performative revenge' being over, the US handling it coldly, and ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Iran being restarted.
But: What if there are real US military casualties? A black swan could come again!
Survival guide for the crypto circle:
Hold onto your spot positions, don't get thrown off the bus by a midnight spike.
Stay away from contract trading dogs; this kind of market explodes both long and short.
Keep a close eye on Trump's Twitter; it's more effective than technical indicators.
Third: Trump suddenly announces: Is there a ceasefire between Israel and Iran?
Before the close of US stocks on Monday, Trump posted on social media, stating that Iran's response to the US military's attack on its nuclear facilities was 'very weak' - 14 missiles with only 1 not intercepted, and due to prior notification, US military had zero casualties. He hinted that the conflict should end and called for Israel to also cease fire.
Subsequently, Trump suddenly announced that Israel and Iran had reached a comprehensive ceasefire, but both sides 'slapped back':
The Israeli Prime Minister demands collective silence from the cabinet.
Iran's Foreign Minister denies there is an agreement but states 'willing to stop here.'
The Federal Reserve releases signals for interest rate cuts.
Two Federal Reserve officials simultaneously 'dove':
Bowman supports a rate cut in July, stating that Trump's tariffs have less impact on inflation than expected.
Gulsby pointed out that tariffs have not raised inflation, and conditions for rate cuts are maturing.
Bitcoin rebounds against the trend.
BTC briefly dipped below $100,000 but quickly rebounded; traders believe Middle Eastern risks are easing and it may target $110,000.
Old Mo takes you to ride the waves and catch big fish!
The bigger the waves, the more expensive the fish! Precisely target contracts/spot, capturing everything on-chain with the golden dog!