I. Market Sentiment and Logical Analysis

The cryptocurrency space is often jokingly referred to as 'the world's ATM'; geopolitical conflicts, celebrity statements, and US stock volatility can all trigger BTC declines, but this correlation essentially reflects capital risk aversion and speculative sentiment. Currently, Bitcoin is in a sideways oscillation, with high and low points gradually rising, indicating bullish strength is accumulating, but patience is required until a clear direction is established.

II. Key Technical Signals

🔹 Trend and Volume-Price Relationship

• Hourly Level: Continuous raising of high and low points forms an upward channel, the candlestick at the white arrow shows 'volume and price', indicating bullish aggression;

• Volume Warning: Breakthroughs must be accompanied by increased trading volume; otherwise, they may be false breakouts, and chasing long positions should be done cautiously.

🔹 Multi-Cycle Support and Pressure

• Upper Pressure: $105,508 → $106,107 → $106,545 (with $105,476 as the watershed for hourly reversal);

• Lower Support: $104,192 → $102,996 → $102,055 (the 4-hour level of $104,343 is a key support).

III. Key Levels and Trading Strategies

🔹 Right-Side Trading Signals

• Long Conditions:

1. A volume breakout at $105,257 with a stable hourly closing price → chase the long on the right side, targeting $106,089 → $106,521, with a stop loss on a breakout;

2. After a false breakdown at $103,402, if it recovers → take small positions to try long, with a stop loss below $102,839 or the low of the false breakdown.

• Short Selling Conditions:

1. A volume drop below $104,763 with a rebound that cannot recover → chase the short on the right side, targeting $104,343 → $103,311, with a stop loss on recovery;

2. A 2B false breakout at $106,053 → take small positions to try short, with a stop loss above $106,837.

🔹 Conservative Strategy

• Long Position: Layout at $101,018, stop loss below $100,000, suitable for medium to long-term capital betting on support rebounds.

IV. Operational Reminders and Risk Control

1. Principles for Dealing with Sideways Movement:

◦ It is difficult to trade during sideways movement; it is recommended to wait for a range breakout and then follow the trend to avoid frequent trading;

◦ When the hourly high and low points are raised, be cautious with short selling and prioritize low long strategies.

2. Core Confirmation of Reversal:

◦ A stable position at $105,476 is considered an hourly reversal; any upward movement before breaking this level may just be a rebound;

◦ If the 4-hour level of $104,343 is lost and if it dips to $103,311 without recovery, a shift to a bearish mindset is needed.

3. Volume Verification is Key:

◦ When breaking $105,257, the trading volume must increase by more than 30% compared to the previous day, otherwise it may be a false bullish signal;

◦ False breakdown signals should be combined with candlestick patterns (such as long lower shadows); a single breakdown does not constitute a reason for long positions.

V. Market Sentiment and Discipline

• In a volatile market, 'guessing tops and bottoms' is a major taboo; follow the signal operations rather than subjective judgments;

• If holding low-position long orders, partial profit-taking can be done at resistance levels, without needing to sell at the highest point;

• Remember: Sideways movement is a stage of trend accumulation; patiently waiting for breakout signals is more important than blind trading.

Conclusion: Waiting for the trend to clarify amidst oscillation and accumulation.

BTC is currently in a phase of long-short stalemate, with rising high and low points suggesting bullish dominance, but before breaking through key resistance levels, the trend remains uncertain. The operation should focus on 'small position testing and volume confirmation', increase positions after a breakout, and set stop losses after a drop — let the market determine the direction, and we just need to be prepared to follow.