Emergency Notice: Mt.Gox Repayment Countdown! These three signals determine whether $BTC will be halved
1. The Truth Behind the Stalemate
1. Position of the Lifeline
Current price $104,992.8 stuck at a key position, far below the Bollinger Band midline of $110,530, with bulls and bears repeatedly battling around $105,000.
Lower bottom line: $102,664, breaking this level could lead to a sharp drop to $97,803.
Upper ceiling: $105,597 is the first checkpoint, breaking through will look towards $107,525.
2. Revealing the Bull and Bear Cards
Bullish chips: Grayscale ETHE negative premium turns positive, BlackRock ETF has been accumulating for 3 consecutive days.
Bearish bomb: Mt.Gox repayment countdown, ECB hawkish comments intensifying panic.
Main force tactics: Copying the script from August 2023 — sideways consolidation to accumulate chips, waiting for a chance to burst upwards.
2. MACD Sends Conflicting Signals
Bears are rampant: DIF and DEA deeply entrenched in negative territory, bear market pattern unchanged.
Bulls spark: MACD bars have turned positive for 3 consecutive bars, average increase of 4.2% after similar signals triggered in the past 7 days.
Today's validation point: Stabilizing above $105,597 before 18:00 = effective rebound, otherwise still a “false move.”
3. Three Response Scenarios
Scenario A: Positive Surprise
Conditions: Sudden ETF good news/inflation data cooling down
Operation: Light long position at current price, chase up on breaking $105,597, target $107,525, strict stop loss at $103,500
Scenario B: Black Swan Crash
Conditions: Mt.Gox announces repayment/SEC regulatory storm
Operation: Place a short order at $102,600, target $98,000, stop loss at $104,000
Scenario C: Volatile Weaving Machine
Characteristics: Fluctuation in the range of $103,000-$106,000
Operation: Long at $103,500/short at $106,200, capturing a 2% price difference
Rule of Thumb for Positioning:
In a volatile market ≤20% position, add to position after a breakout ≤10%
Remember the lesson from LUNA: Stop loss is to keep your powder dry, not to admit defeat!
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