Geopolitical risks alleviated! Ceasefire agreement reached, the logic behind BTC's surge has changed
On June 24, 2025, Iranian officials officially confirmed acceptance of the ceasefire plan proposed by the United States, with Israel simultaneously implementing a phased ceasefire—this 12-day Middle Eastern conflict has been declared extinguished
The most sensitive “black swan alert” in the cryptocurrency circle has been lifted, and BTC surged past $68,000, with $210 million in short positions liquidated within 24 hours
However, a deeper game has just begun: after the retreat of geopolitical risk aversion funds, the main players are shifting their bets towards the clear line of “regulatory easing”
Ceasefire details: “Precise control” mediated by Qatar
According to the agreement announced by Trump:
Timeline: At 12 PM Beijing time, Iran initiated the ceasefire; 12 hours later, Israel followed suit; 24 hours later, the war officially ended
Behind-the-scenes driver: The Prime Minister of Qatar urgently mediated, persuading Tehran to accept the ceasefire after Iran's retaliatory strike on the US military base in Qatar (which did not cause casualties)
Key conditions: Iran demands that the US pledge to not escalate attacks, while Israel insists on completing the “final military mission”
Market reactions say it all: Gold and oil prices plummeted, the funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts turned positive at 0.03%, indicating that bulls are regaining control
Ceasefire ≠ Peace! Three potential turning points
1. Israel's “unfulfilled goals”
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claims, “Iran’s 60% enriched uranium stockpile still poses a threat,” suggesting that strikes on nuclear facilities may continue. If Israel launches a surprise attack during the ceasefire period, risk aversion sentiment will reverse instantly—similar to the scenario in April 2024 when Iran first attacked, where BTC's daily volatility exceeded 18%
2. Political games in an election year in the US
Trump loudly promotes the ceasefire results, which is actually a campaign for his cryptocurrency-friendly policies. However, if the Democratic Party takes office, it may reverse the current easing trend, similar to the overturning of the OCC cryptocurrency custody guidelines in 2024
3. Subtle changes in the flow of funds in the Middle East
On-chain data shows that in the 24 hours before the ceasefire, the inflow of stablecoins from Middle Eastern crypto OTC channels to exchanges plummeted by 37%, with some whale addresses exchanging USDT for BTC spot—smart funds have already started positioning for the “regulatory dividends” of the post-conflict era
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