The deep logic behind Ethereum's daily surge of 9%: Geopolitical ceasefire and capital migration ignite a new crypto cycle.
The sound of explosions over northeast Tehran has yet to dissipate. President Trump’s ceasefire declaration on Truth Social has ignited global markets—almost simultaneously, Ethereum's price surged past key resistance levels, soaring nearly 9% intraday, marking the largest single-day gain of the year. Behind this dramatic linkage is a dual narrative resonance of waning geopolitical risks and a reassessment of Ethereum's ecological value.
The ceasefire ignites risk appetite, causing a surge across the crypto market.
According to the details of the ceasefire agreement announced by Trump, Iran will initiate a 12-hour ceasefire at midnight on June 24 Eastern Time, followed by Israel's second-phase ceasefire. After 24 hours, this 12-day war will officially end. Despite the Iranian parliamentary speaker's advisor questioning the statement as a 'provocation,' the capital markets have cast a vote of confidence with real money:
Global risk assets are celebrating together: Major U.S. stock index futures rise simultaneously, with Nasdaq futures up 0.76%; Japanese and Korean stock markets open high and continue to climb, with the South Korean Composite Index rising over 2%; Bitcoin rebounds to break through the $101,000 mark.
The oil price crash reveals the retreat from safe havens: WTI and Brent crude oil daily declines have expanded to 6%, falling below $70 per barrel, hitting a four-month low, as traders bet that Iran will not block the Strait of Hormuz.
Altcoins surge with a 'beta effect': Under ETH's leadership, mainstream tokens like Solana and XRP have daily increases exceeding 7%, with volatility arbitrage funds accelerating inflow.
Historical script replay? This 12-day conflict has caused nearly ten million residents of Tehran to flee, and Israel's strikes on 'regime targets' like Evan prison have overturned traditional military confrontation logic. As the dawn of a ceasefire appears, it immediately releases suppressed risk appetite—compared to the recovery period of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, crypto assets' sensitivity to geopolitical events has increased threefold, becoming the primary outlet for macro funds.
Triple engine driving ETH's independent market: Institutions, technology, and staking income revolution.
If Ethereum's surge is attributed solely to the Middle East ceasefire, it undoubtedly underestimates the qualitative change in its intrinsic value. By June 2025, Ethereum's ecosystem has initiated a triple value reassessment engine:
Institutional capital siphoning effect.
Ethereum spot ETF has seen a net inflow of$321 million, while Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of $1.23 billion during the same period, forming a stark contrast. Giants like BlackRock are upgrading ETH holdings from 'satellite assets' to 'core allocations,' with their cost basis significantly higher than current prices, creating over 30% discount space.Technical breakthrough of the 'impossible triangle.'
The Pectra upgrade completed in May has enabled Ethereum's performance to achieve a generational leap:TPS has jumped from 30 to 90, with Gas fees dropping to the $0.001 level, competing with high-performance chains like Solana.
EIP-7002 proposal allows programmable triggers for staking node withdrawals, paving the way for compliance in RWA (Real World Asset tokenization).
Under the PoS mechanism, the cost of a 51% attack has soared to $32 trillion, surpassing the market value of global gold reserves.
The revolution of assetization of staking income.
Ethereum's annualized staking yield is about4.5%, based on DCF model calculations, its long-term valuation lower limit has been anchored at $3,000-$3,500. BlackRock is lobbying the SEC for approval.Staking-type ETH ETF, if successful, Ethereum will become the first 'yield-generating digital asset,' attracting long-term capital such as pension and insurance funds—this is precisely the key narrative missing from the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Technical structure bifurcation: Monthly cup-and-handle pattern opens the bull market channel.
Technical and funding aspects form a rare resonance:
1. Breakthrough of the monthly cup-and-handle pattern: After three years of bottoming (2021-2024), ETH/USD breaks through the $2,500 neckline, with trading volume reaching 1.3 times that of historically similar stages.
2. Macro range opens: After stabilizing at the lower end of the $2,500-$4,000 range, the mid-term target points to $6,000-$8,000, with Standard Chartered even bullish to $14,000.
3. Exchange rate revolution signal: ETH/BTC breaks through the 0.025 decade resistance level, establishing a trend of capital migrating from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
Hidden currents in the revelry: Overbought leverage and regulatory games.
Amidst the market revelry, two major risks must be heeded:
Chain reaction of leverage liquidation: $1.2 billion of leveraged long positions concentrated in the $2,500-$2,600 range, with $5.32 billion of forced liquidation risk looming, and RSI daily touching the overbought range of 75.
SEC's staking ETF ruling: If staking income is classified as 'interest on securities,' short-term prices may pull back to $2,300; BlackRock's 50-person lobbying team is pushing hard for approval before the third quarter.
Whale selling pressure is becoming apparent: The top 10 addresses have increased their holdings by 1.2 million ETH in the past two weeks, with a cost basis of about $2,400, creating an incentive for profit-taking.
As the countdown to Tehran's ceasefire coincides with Ethereum's K-line pulse on June 24, what we witness is not only the waning of geopolitical risks but also a structural revolution of capital migration. Just as traders bet on ETH breaking through as oil prices plummeted by 7%, the market is voting with its feet: under the triangular support of PoS yield-generating assets, institutional-grade security, and the trillion-dollar narrative of RWA, Ethereum's 'value black hole' effect is just awakening.
A historic moment: The ceasefire agreement takes effect at midnight on June 24 Eastern Time, coinciding with Powell's testimony on monetary policy in front of the House—if he signals a rate cut, an epic market move of Ethereum breaking through the $3,000 mark may unfold ahead of schedule.
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