When Richmond Fed President Barkin said on camera, "We haven't achieved the inflation target for four years," Wall Street traders turned pale—what they expected as a rate cut in July was buried by this powerful figure in the Federal Reserve. In the same week, Fed Governor Waller hinted at a possible rate cut in July, but just 48 hours later, Barkin doused the last market fantasy with a bucket of cold water: "I am satisfied with the current policy level... core inflation is still above target." The internal division of the Federal Reserve has never been so stark, and the nightmare in the cryptocurrency world has just begun.

1. Barkin's three bullets: each hits the cryptocurrency sector's vital point.

  1. "No rate cut" declaration.
    "Data does not support a rush to cut rates"—behind Barkin's words is the Federal Reserve's calmness towards4.2% unemployment rate,the calmness of consumer spending being "neither hot nor cold," and a deep wariness of the specter of inflation. While leveraged longs in the cryptocurrency world still fantasize about rate cuts saving the market, the Federal Reserve's rate weapon is confirmed to be stored in its sheath for a longer time.

  2. Tariff inflation bomb countdown.
    Businesses in Barkin's jurisdiction have already issued warnings:New tariffs will push prices higher later this year.! More terrifyingly, "tariff rates may be further increased in the coming months." Imagine: Sino-U.S. trade war 2.0 + European steel and aluminum tariffs + Southeast Asia anti-dumping, the cracks in the global supply chain are turning into a black hole that devours the purchasing power of the dollar.

  3. Deadly wait-and-see strategy.
    "Wait and see" is the most dangerous investment trap in 2025.. Barkin bluntly stated this is not slamming the brakes, but not speeding up either. Yet when the Federal Reserve is cautious, the market swings violently—dot plot shows that among 19 officials, 10 predict 2-3 rate cuts, while 9 believe at most one or none. This policy division is precisely the breeding ground for market volatility!

2. Triple strangulation in the cryptocurrency world: when the rate cut illusion meets geopolitical cannon fire and interest rate knives hanging high.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a September rate cut has plummeted by 39%! As actual interest rates (5.25%-3.2%=2.05%) erode liquidity like a dull knife slicing meat, the valuation models of cryptocurrency assets relying on cheap dollars are collapsing.

Middle East black swan flaps its wings.
Just 48 hours after Barkin's speech, Trump issued a war warning to Iran: "Any retaliation will face a stronger counterattack." The market was instantly crushed: Bitcoin plummeted $3,200 in 10 minutes, with $1.82 billion in leveraged long positions turning to ashes amid the gunfire. Geopolitics has become the new ruler of the cryptocurrency world.

Weak structures reveal their true form.
Bloomberg traders issued a suffocation alarm: "The buy depth is 37% thinner than during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis; a $50 million sell order could trigger a liquidity bomb." When Uniswap's ETH exchange slippage soared to 1.8%, and when 1inch's stablecoin premium surpassed 3%, we finally see: the liquidity boom in the cryptocurrency world is such a fragile mirage.

3. Personal bold statement: The biggest cognitive battle in 2025, don't be killed by the "rate cut illusion"!

  1. "Rate cut illusion" has completely collapsed.
    When Barkin said, "We haven't reached the inflation target in four years," it was equivalent to sentencing 2025's loose monetary policy to death.I predict the Federal Reserve will cut rates at most once this year, or even remain still.—this is not alarmist; just look at how Richmond business owners have frozen capital expenditures due to tariff anxiety.

  2. Trump coin exposes regulatory killing intent.
    When meme coin $TRUMP captured $320 million, pushing PancakeSwap's daily trading volume up 400%, former SEC enforcement director Linda Thompson's furious roar was deafening:"Securities law is kneeling before the dealer in front of the White House!"This round of revelry just provides a perfect strike coordinate for regulatory iron fists.

  3. New hedging ecology rises.
    Pay attention to CEPR think tank's $1.9 trillion independent liquidity pool proposal! When Swiss gold imports surged 82%, and JPMorgan plotted to issue "bank chain stablecoins," traditional finance is constructing defenses against Federal Reserve influence.Cryptocurrencies must be embedded in a new hedging matrix to survive.—for instance, the combination of Bitcoin spot + COMEX gold previously brought the volatility correlation down to -0.38, with only a 9% drop during the LUNA crisis.

4. Retail investor survival guide: carve a bloody path amid the Federal Reserve's caution.

  1. Leverage is the number one killer in 2025.
    Under Barkin's "wait and see" strategy,the market will experience high-frequency shocks.. Immediately check positions: Perpetual contract leverage should be reduced to below 3 times, avoiding the 105,000-110,000 USD options explosion area.

  2. Embed traditional hedging networks.
    Allocate20% of the position to gold-related assets.. Historical data proves that when the Deribit Bitcoin $95,000 put options + $110,000 call options combination premiums reach 45%, the volatility harvesting strategy is most effective.

  3. Target regulatory gap assets.
    Pay attention to CEPR-related tokens + BIS's Project Agorá infrastructure currencies. When the FDIC warns that "tech giant stablecoins will drain $430 billion from community banks," such anti-regulatory assets could surge.

When Barkin said "wait and see" in the Federal Reserve meeting room, factory owners in Richmond paused their hiring plans while missiles in the Middle East were being loaded. Historical experience tells us: the day central banks are cautious is when black swans dance. Ordinary investors now need to do is check leverage immediately, include gold in their asset shield, and initiate the volatility harvesting strategy when geopolitical conflicts escalate—using concrete from the 1929 Great Depression to build positions, instead of being exposed to the dual storm of policies and gunfire.

The cryptocurrency circle never lacks opportunities, only those who survive to the next bull market. Remember: when the Federal Reserve is cautious, you must act; when the market is panicking, you need to stay clear-headed.

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