The price of Dogecoin continues to decline, with cryptocurrency analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) warning that the worst may still be ahead. Over the weekend, Kevin cited previous bearish patterns, emphasizing that the head and shoulders pattern formed by Dogecoin nearly two weeks ago is rapidly approaching its technical 'measured move' target. However, he also made it clear that Dogecoin's full downside potential has not yet fully materialized.
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"I'm not saying we've arrived there now," Kevin clarified in a subsequent post, "the orange circle represents the area where the measured move could reach, with the precise measured move target being .786 fib, or .119."
The level of $0.119 coincides with broader technical support levels, which are quickly becoming crucial for the Dogecoin structure. "The 'head and shoulders' pattern in Dogecoin that I pointed out weeks ago has nearly reached its measurable move target range. Some daily indicators are also starting to enter oscillation levels. Keep a close eye on BTC and USDT's dominance for further confirmation," he wrote.
Dogecoin head and shoulders pattern | Source: X @Kev_Capital_TA
Kevin also emphasized the importance of the weekly 200 simple moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA), as well as the macro .382 Fibonacci retracement level and long-term downward trend line.
These levels collectively form what he refers to as the 'must-hold' area, specifically between $0.1434 and $0.1265. A sustained drop below this area could likely confirm the macro bearish trend for this meme asset.
What to monitor now
Looking at the broader world, Kevin believes that Dogecoin's fate is closely tied to Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market, which he describes as being at a low point not seen in years. "So far, the pessimism towards altcoins in 2025 is more severe than in 2024 and 2023," he noted. "This is the worst year for altcoins since the 2022 bear market." Bitcoin's overwhelming dominance is a key factor in this trend.
Kevin believes that this dominance is not temporary. "Against the backdrop of tight monetary policy and an uncertain geopolitical environment, BTC's dominance is reaching new highs," he wrote, referring to the global macro environment, including ongoing quantitative tightening (QT). He has long warned that any discussion of a true 'altcoin season' is premature unless there is a shift in central bank policy.
"Since late 2023 and early 2024—when AI coins were surging and people were saying this is #Altseason—I've been saying that you won't see truly sustainable outperformance in altcoins unless quantitative easing ends and terminal rates drop. This remains true."
Bitcoin's dominance | Source: X @Kev_Capital_TA
His caution extends beyond Dogecoin. In previous articles, Kevin pointed out the key danger zones for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which he believes must be reclaimed to prevent overall market deterioration. "As long as BTC cannot break above $106,800 and show a real follow-through in the range of 3 days to 1 week, the market is truly at risk," he wrote. "The same goes for ETH if it cannot break above the $2,700-$2,800 range."
For Dogecoin traders, the message is clear. The fate of this meme coin depends not only on its own technical health but also on the broader macro and cross-market structure, which remains fragile. As long as Bitcoin struggles to hold key breakout levels and U.S. monetary policy remains tight, the likelihood of a deeper correction in Dogecoin remains high.
In the coming days and weeks, whether Dogecoin can maintain above $0.1265 will be closely watched by traders. A drop below this area, especially if Bitcoin weakens again, could signal that this once-beloved meme coin is entering a deeper, more painful phase.
As of the time of writing, DOGE is trading at $0.152.
