So, Iran struck back at the Americans after the USA attacked its nuclear facilities.

Now everything depends on the response from the USA. Iran's strike was limited in nature. According to preliminary information, it did not cause significant damage. Moreover, the Iranians had warned Qatar and the USA in advance about it. So, it was more of a demonstrative act to show some kind of 'retaliation' rather than an intention to actually inflict significant damage on the Americans.

If after this the USA does not respond, then both sides may claim that they have 'inflicted irreparable damage on each other, achieved all their goals' and even return to negotiations.

A similar situation occurred in January 2020, when the Americans killed Soleimani, and Iran responded by launching missiles at American bases, with no casualties. And the strikes stopped there. However, it is undoubtedly a fundamentally different situation now, as there is effectively a full-fledged war between Iran and Israel, in which the USA is an obvious ally of the latter.

If there is a response, it means that the USA is fully getting involved in the war with Iran, becoming one of its direct participants. Accordingly, Iran will also strike at the Americans. Especially since the US bases are much closer to Iran than to Israel, and it is easier to hit them with missiles. It all depends on how much strength the USA has to achieve the defeat of Iran and a change of power there with just air strikes (they do not have a large ground army in the Middle East).

A separate question is how the countries of the Persian Gulf will behave in this situation. Will they continue to demonstrate neutrality or join the USA in attacks on Iran? Qatar has already warned that it reserves the right to a 'proportional response' to Iranian strikes on its territory. Saudi Arabia supported this. However, it is still unclear whether specific actions will follow from these words in the form of strikes on Iran. Much depends on what decision the USA makes - to fully engage in the war or not.

So far, Washington shows a desire to avoid deep involvement. The markets are relatively calm - oil prices have gone down after it became clear that Iran launched a limited strike against the Americans. But the desire to 'finally deal with the Iranian issue' may outweigh caution, and the USA will fully enter the war.

At the same time, the main unknown variable in assessing future scenarios is the presence (or absence) of Iran's capabilities to create nuclear weapons in a short period of time. It is also noteworthy that Dmitry Medvedev clarified his Sunday statement about the readiness of certain countries to transfer nuclear warheads to Iran. Today, Medvedev said that Russia will not transfer warheads to Iran, as it is a participant in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. But other countries may do so. He did not name which ones, but theoretically, there are two - Pakistan and North Korea.