#BTC currently quotes near $100,573, having shown an intraday volatility between $98,460 and $102,400. The price remains above $100,000 after a slight pullback in recent days.

Market sentiment is predominantly pessimistic among retail investors. The ratio of bullish to bearish comments on social media has fallen to its lowest level since April, with only 1.03 positive comments for every negative one. At the professional level, analysts highlight that this fear could be a signal of an imminent rebound. Furthermore, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 remains high, with a coefficient of 0.7, suggesting that movements in the stock market directly impact the crypto market.

For this week, technical and fundamental forecasts point to a rebound towards the resistance zone between $104,000 and $106,000 if it manages to stay above the 100-day moving average ($99,000). However, risks persist: geopolitical tensions (such as in the Middle East) could trigger declines of 3–4%, as already occurred after the conflict between Israel and Iran, where BTC reached $103,500.

In summary, the decline in retail optimism could herald a recovery led by institutional investors, as long as the macroeconomic environment does not deteriorate further. The key area to watch: $104,000–$106,000.